Nephosthe weather behind the paintings
Gustave Caillebotte, Paris Street; Rainy Day: umbrellas on a wet Paris crossing under a pale sky.
Art Institute of Chicago, 1964.336, public domain

A study against the weather record

Gustave Caillebotte

Paris Street; Rainy Day

1877 · Art Institute of Chicago, 1964.336

The title says rain. Did it rain in Paris in the months the picture could have been painted?

65of the 94 days before the painting was first shown had rain at Paris-Montsouris.

“Temps de pluie” partially agreesDay unknown

The recordsLook closer at the painting

The Nephos method

How this study was read

The method in full
  1. What is written

    The rue de Turin at the rue de Moscou, Paris, 1877, finished before the exhibition opened on 4 April.

  2. Records of those days

    Not found or not yet searched

    • Paris newspapers for early 1877 have not yet been searched: the Gallica archive blocked an automated search on 23 September 2026.
    • No dated letter from Caillebotte about the weather has been located.
  3. Each claim tested

    • “temps de pluie”, rainy weather in a Paris street. Between 1 January and 4 April 1877 rain fell at Montsouris on 65 of 94 days, 40 of them with at least 1 mm: 164.7 mm in all. The wettest day was 20 March, with 19.5 mm. The 1991–2020 average is 29.7 such days and 140.8 mm.
    • “the hint of sun after the rain”, the museum catalogue’s reading of the light once the painting was cleaned. The station kept no sunshine record, and rain fell on so many days that no single one stands out. Kirk Varnedoe, quoted in the same catalogue, saw “almost shadowless grey light”.
    • The day painted. The catalogue describes an on-site sketch and a canvas probably worked on the studio wall; no session is dated.
  4. Verdict

    • Partially agrees“temps de pluie” Rain fell on most days the painting could have been made, 6.6 km away; no record ties the painted rain to a day.
    • Unknown“the hint of sun after the rain” No sunshine or cloud was recorded, so the light cannot be tested.
    • UnknownThe day painted. The painting was composed from a sketch; no day can be picked.

What this cannot tell you. The Montsouris gauge stands on the southern edge of Paris, not at the street corner. A count of wet days describes a season; it cannot date a scene. The painting was composed in stages, so its weather may combine more than one day.

Step 2 · Records of those days

Ninety-four days at Montsouris

The painting is signed 1877 and hung in the third Impressionist exhibition, which opened on 4 April 1877. So it was finished inside these 94 days. Each bar is one day’s rain in the Paris-Montsouris gauge, 6.6 km from the crossing Caillebotte painted, now the place de Dublin. No day is missing.

Daily rain at Paris-Montsouris, 1 January to 4 April 1877One bar per day. 65 of 94 days had rain; 40 had at least 1 mm. The wettest was 20 March 1877, with 19.5 mm.5101520mmJanuary1 January 1877: dry2 January 1877: 0.4 mm3 January 1877: dry4 January 1877: 7.4 mm5 January 1877: 2.4 mm6 January 1877: 1.2 mm7 January 1877: 4.1 mm8 January 1877: 0.4 mm9 January 1877: dry10 January 1877: 0.4 mm11 January 1877: 1.7 mm12 January 1877: 0.1 mm13 January 1877: 0.1 mm14 January 1877: 3.2 mm15 January 1877: 0.6 mm16 January 1877: dry17 January 1877: 2.6 mm18 January 1877: 0.2 mm19 January 1877: 0.1 mm20 January 1877: 1.6 mm21 January 1877: dry22 January 1877: dry23 January 1877: dry24 January 1877: dry25 January 1877: 2.4 mm26 January 1877: 1.4 mm27 January 1877: 0.6 mm28 January 1877: 5.2 mm29 January 1877: 0.2 mm30 January 1877: 5.6 mm31 January 1877: 0.3 mmFebruary1 February 1877: 5.9 mm2 February 1877: dry3 February 1877: 0.6 mm4 February 1877: 0.8 mm5 February 1877: dry6 February 1877: dry7 February 1877: 0.6 mm8 February 1877: 3.1 mm9 February 1877: 0.3 mm10 February 1877: dry11 February 1877: dry12 February 1877: 3.6 mm13 February 1877: 6.7 mm14 February 1877: dry15 February 1877: dry16 February 1877: 2.4 mm17 February 1877: dry18 February 1877: dry19 February 1877: 4.6 mm20 February 1877: 7.1 mm21 February 1877: 0.6 mm22 February 1877: 2.5 mm23 February 1877: 0.1 mm24 February 1877: 0.4 mm25 February 1877: 1.4 mm26 February 1877: 1.0 mm27 February 1877: 1.2 mm28 February 1877: dryMarch1 March 1877: dry2 March 1877: 2.5 mm3 March 1877: 0.1 mm4 March 1877: 2.3 mm5 March 1877: 0.9 mm6 March 1877: 2.7 mm7 March 1877: 1.7 mm8 March 1877: 0.4 mm9 March 1877: dry10 March 1877: dry11 March 1877: dry12 March 1877: 0.1 mm13 March 1877: 0.8 mm14 March 1877: 0.9 mm15 March 1877: dry16 March 1877: 2.0 mm17 March 1877: 3.7 mm18 March 1877: dry19 March 1877: dry20 March 1877: 19.5 mm21 March 1877: 1.8 mm22 March 1877: dry23 March 1877: 5.4 mm24 March 1877: 2.7 mm25 March 1877: 5.5 mm26 March 1877: 4.0 mm27 March 1877: 7.2 mm28 March 1877: dry29 March 1877: 1.8 mm30 March 1877: 4.5 mm31 March 1877: dryApril1 April 1877: dry2 April 1877: 0.2 mm3 April 1877: 1.9 mm4 April 1877: 7.0 mm1 mm: a rain day20 March, 19.5 mm4 April: the exhibition opens
Météo-France daily record, station 75114001. A thin mark under the line is a dry day. The warmest afternoon was 4 April, 22.2 °C.
65
days with any rain, of 94
40
days with at least 1 mm
164.7
mm in all
−6.2
°C, the coldest morning, 12 March
Every day, rain and temperature
1877Rain, mmLowest, °CHighest, °C
1 January0.08.513.5
2 January0.46.510.7
3 January0.07.813.7
4 January7.47.111.6
5 January2.46.610.8
6 January1.25.711.4
7 January4.17.714.1
8 January0.47.915.5
9 January0.08.114.9
10 January0.47.114.4
11 January1.75.09.4
12 January0.11.66.5
13 January0.10.25.2
14 January3.22.19.3
15 January0.63.69.4
16 January0.0−0.98.5
17 January2.61.88.2
18 January0.24.99.0
19 January0.15.913.1
20 January1.64.69.5
21 January0.0−1.43.6
22 January0.0−1.91.3
23 January0.0−4.96.0
24 January0.0−5.62.4
25 January2.4−1.29.1
26 January1.40.96.4
27 January0.6−1.45.3
28 January5.24.111.8
29 January0.22.58.8
30 January5.63.58.7
31 January0.32.68.5
1 February5.93.610.3
2 February0.06.512.7
3 February0.63.511.1
4 February0.81.910.0
5 February0.0−1.68.8
6 February0.04.911.2
7 February0.68.013.5
8 February3.15.012.3
9 February0.36.311.9
10 February0.07.812.3
11 February0.07.810.9
12 February3.65.812.0
13 February6.77.713.9
14 February0.09.812.6
15 February0.05.213.3
16 February2.44.28.4
17 February0.00.69.8
18 February0.03.39.8
19 February4.65.98.7
20 February7.12.17.8
21 February0.61.56.7
22 February2.50.46.3
23 February0.11.04.1
24 February0.40.98.3
25 February1.47.711.4
26 February1.02.710.7
27 February1.2−0.78.3
28 February0.0−3.33.5
1 March0.0−2.64.8
2 March2.5−0.85.0
3 March0.14.511.6
4 March2.35.410.2
5 March0.93.68.2
6 March2.70.16.7
7 March1.7−0.24.9
8 March0.40.06.1
9 March0.0−0.94.6
10 March0.0−3.62.8
11 March0.0−4.81.9
12 March0.1−6.25.7
13 March0.85.111.3
14 March0.97.610.4
15 March0.06.611.9
16 March2.05.611.8
17 March3.72.110.7
18 March0.0−0.59.7
19 March0.00.49.5
20 March19.52.612.3
21 March1.81.57.5
22 March0.0−0.17.6
23 March5.4−0.99.2
24 March2.74.011.0
25 March5.55.011.9
26 March4.05.511.0
27 March7.24.512.0
28 March0.03.215.8
29 March1.88.917.6
30 March4.57.815.7
31 March0.03.815.1
1 April0.05.012.6
2 April0.28.314.5
3 April1.95.317.6
4 April7.08.222.2

Step 3 · The claim tested

1877 against 152 years

The same 94 days in every year from 1873 to 2024. 13 years had more rain days than 1877 and one other had as many. The 1991–2020 average is 29.7. A wet start to 1877, then, but not an exceptional one.

Rain days between 1 January and 4 April, every year from 1873 to 2024Each dot is one year. 1877 had 40 days with at least 1 mm; 13 of 152 years had more. The 1991 to 2020 average is 29.7.1020304050188019001920194019601980200020201991–2020 average, 29.71873: 32 days1874: 14 days1875: 19 days1876: 30 days1878: 22 days1879: 30 days1880: 21 days1881: 29 days1882: 12 days1883: 25 days1884: 17 days1885: 26 days1886: 25 days1887: 11 days1888: 37 days1889: 33 days1890: 20 days1891: 20 days1892: 25 days1893: 26 days1894: 25 days1895: 22 days1896: 4 days1897: 37 days1898: 25 days1899: 21 days1900: 38 days1901: 33 days1902: 22 days1903: 27 days1904: 32 days1905: 29 days1906: 40 days1907: 20 days1908: 29 days1909: 31 days1910: 34 days1911: 18 days1912: 34 days1913: 28 days1914: 34 days1915: 37 days1916: 39 days1917: 32 days1918: 27 days1919: 46 days1920: 28 days1921: 15 days1922: 38 days1923: 35 days1924: 28 days1925: 25 days1926: 30 days1927: 43 days1928: 39 days1929: 12 days1930: 25 days1931: 32 days1932: 21 days1933: 20 days1934: 26 days1935: 31 days1936: 44 days1937: 46 days1938: 24 days1939: 36 days1940: 28 days1941: 36 days1942: 32 days1943: 25 days1944: 28 days1945: 26 days1946: 25 days1947: 35 days1948: 34 days1949: 17 days1950: 30 days1951: 47 days1952: 33 days1953: 14 days1954: 29 days1955: 38 days1956: 21 days1957: 32 days1958: 39 days1959: 25 days1960: 31 days1961: 25 days1962: 31 days1963: 25 days1964: 26 days1965: 30 days1966: 33 days1967: 23 days1968: 36 days1969: 26 days1970: 51 days1971: 27 days1972: 31 days1973: 19 days1974: 34 days1975: 35 days1976: 21 days1977: 41 days1978: 48 days1979: 43 days1980: 29 days1981: 35 days1982: 33 days1983: 31 days1984: 39 days1985: 28 days1986: 32 days1987: 33 days1988: 51 days1989: 32 days1990: 22 days1991: 25 days1992: 22 days1993: 14 days1994: 36 days1995: 50 days1996: 23 days1997: 18 days1998: 24 days1999: 35 days2000: 33 days2001: 46 days2002: 27 days2003: 21 days2004: 24 days2005: 35 days2006: 34 days2007: 34 days2008: 35 days2009: 25 days2010: 31 days2011: 22 days2012: 11 days2013: 36 days2014: 38 days2015: 28 days2016: 36 days2017: 25 days2018: 43 days2019: 29 days2020: 32 days2021: 37 days2022: 22 days2023: 29 days2024: 36 days1877: 40 days1877: 40 days
Days with at least 1 mm between 1 January and 4 April; 29 February is left out so every year counts the same 94 days.

Step 4 · Why the verdict stops at the season

What a rain gauge cannot reach

The museum’s catalogue describes a picture composed in stages, and two readings of its light. Neither can be checked against a gauge that measured rain once a day.

“the initial on-site stage of Caillebotte’s sketch”

Art Institute of Chicago, scholarly catalogue

“the most logical arrangement would have been to tack the loose canvas to the studio wall”

Art Institute of Chicago, scholarly catalogue

“the hint of sun after the rain”

The same catalogue, on the light after the painting was cleaned

“The almost shadowless grey light of the sky”

Kirk Varnedoe, quoted in the same catalogue

Sources

Every source on this page

Each file was downloaded and given a fingerprint (its sha256). The page is rebuilt from these files and will not build if a fingerprint changes, so every number above comes from them rather than being typed in.

  1. Météo-France daily climatological data, Paris, before 1949Licence Ouverte / Etalab 2.0 · retrieved 20 September 2026sha256 04ccefd0095bb629f1e44434308eef0770693764fc533b96f5cc3ad4553d73f8
  2. Météo-France daily climatological data, Paris, 1950–2024Licence Ouverte / Etalab 2.0 · retrieved 20 September 2026sha256 128d559d01d1f4633e3d1cbb12da8f33e48f6e6e2cb803c3b6421ed86f5ce136
  3. OpenStreetMap Nominatim: Place de Dublin, ParisODbL 1.0, © OpenStreetMap contributors · retrieved 23 September 2026sha256 901deb2007427ff3a77f4936bbcd9e63c19523f1cfb92ff1b54f95e65e9c430f
  4. Art Institute of Chicago, Caillebotte scholarly catalogue, cat. 2Citation excerpts; source rights retained · retrieved 19 September 2026
  5. BnF, Degas en noir et blanc, chronologyCitation excerpt; source rights retained · retrieved 19 September 2026 · Chronologie, p. 19, 1877 entry

The numbers on this page, as JSONThe method card, as JSON

Look closer

Where is the rain in the picture?

A close reading of wet stone, umbrellas and light in the painting itself. It reads the picture; this page tests what is written about it.

Open the close reading