Nephosthe weather behind the paintings

Open Butler Gallery’s image alongside this study to inspect the bare trees, grey sky and pale ground.

View the painting at Butler Gallery

Tony O’Malley, Landscape - Kilkenny Sanatorium, Kells Road, 1949. Butler Gallery, Kilkenny. No open image licence established; reproduction linked.

A study against the weather record

Tony O’Malley

Landscape, Kilkenny Sanatorium, Kells Road

1949 · Butler Gallery, Kilkenny · Object number not confirmed

A grey winter picture. Were the winter months of 1949 unusually wet, cold or sunless?

2separate winter windows: dry early in 1949; frequent light rain late. Neither is assigned to the painting.

Winter: Nephos’s readingPainting day unknown

The recordsThe painting at Butler Gallery

The Nephos method

How this study was read

The method in full

  1. What is written

    Butler Gallery dates the work to 1949. Nephos’s reading of the picture, not a museum statement: bare trees, a heavy grey sky and grey-white ground suggest winter. January–February and November–December are tested separately; neither is assigned to the picture.

  2. Records of those days

    Not found or not yet searched

    • No month, day, hour or precise viewpoint is established by the image or checked biography.
    • No local 1949 frost or sunshine series was recovered; the later Kilkenny synoptic file starts in 1957.
    • No local newspaper weather article was verified. The contemporary quotation is a regional report, not a Kilkenny eyewitness.

  3. Each claim tested

    • Was the winter exceptionally wet at Kilkenny? Early window: 3 from driest of 26. Late window: 5 from driest of 28, yet its 46 rain days tie for the highest count. Frequent light rain and a low total coexist.
    • Does the regional record support an exceptionally cold, sunless season? No: Dublin Airport had 5 air-frost days in each window, against 14.1 and 10.0 in 1991–2020. Sunshine was 154.2 and 141.5 hours, above the corresponding 140.8 and 127.9. This does not measure Kilkenny’s sky.
    • Can the records select the painted day or prove altered weather? No. The winter reading defines two comparison windows. Neither weather resemblance nor the sanatorium biography dates the scene or establishes a change to it.

  4. Verdict

    The winter reading opens a real comparison: a dry early window and a late window with frequent light rain. The regional record supplies no evidence of exceptional cold or sunlessness; a grey winter moment remains entirely possible.

    • ContradictsAn exceptionally cold, sunless winter at Dublin Airport Both windows have fewer frost days and more sunshine than their same-station 1991–2020 averages. This verdict is regional only.
    • UnknownThe exact weather and making of this picture Winter is Nephos’s reading; the painted day, viewpoint and any later reworking remain unresolved.

What this cannot tell you. A regional record cannot establish the temperature, cloud or snow cover at the sanatorium. The windows are kept separate. Rainfall estimates in comparison years are retained and counted; traces are not dry days. The 1991–2020 means are calculated from the downloaded Dublin file, not a published or homogenized normal. No climate trend is inferred. Only legible inscription fragments are transcribed. The holder’s image is linked because no open reproduction licence was established.

Step 1 · Start with the picture

A winter reading, grounded in what is visible

Look at the Butler Gallery reproduction: bare, leafless trees; a heavy grey sky; grey-white ground. This is Nephos’s reading of the picture, not a museum statement: a winter scene. The pale ground does not, by itself, establish snow. A small yellow disc appears against the left-hand building; we cannot securely identify it as a sun or moon. That ambiguity does not decide the season.

The winter hypothesis lets us ask a testable question: were the winter months of the catalogued year exceptionally wet, cold or sunless? We examine January–February and November–December 1949 separately. These are two comparison windows within the year, not a single winter and not proposed painting dates. Leaflessness cannot choose between them or exclude every late-autumn or early-spring day.

Handwriting is visible at lower left. Our conservative transcription retains two secure fragments: Kilkenny … 1949. The intervening and overlapping writing is not fully legible in this reproduction; the ellipsis marks untranscribed writing, not a guessed phrase. A full inscription transcription remains a question for the object. Butler Gallery independently supplies the title Landscape - Kilkenny Sanatorium, Kells Road and the year.

The Dictionary of Irish Biography places O’Malley’s Kilkenny sanatorium recuperation in 1947–50 and describes his sketches of institutional wards, grounds and people. That gives this enclosed setting a documented biographical basis. In the picture, low walls, bare trees, small buildings and a tower organize the view. Neither the biography nor the reproduction identifies a ward, a window or an exact position from which he worked. His own later recollection also warns against treating those years as uninterrupted confinement:

“I'd go back home between stages at the sanatorium”

Tony O'Malley, interviewed by Aidan Dunne, Magill, 31 July 1984

Step 2 · The local test

Frequent rain did not mean a wet season

January–February: 77.1 mm, 3 from driest among 26 complete windows. There were 27 rain days, of which 16 reached 1 mm. At this Kilkenny gauge, early 1949 was not an unusually wet winter window.

November–December: 124.0 mm, 5 from driest among 28 complete windows. Yet its 46 rain days tie for the highest count in that comparison, and 32 days reached 1 mm. Relatively little rain fell, but it fell often. This is a useful distinction for a picture dominated by grey: a low seasonal total need not mean a succession of dry days. Rainfall still does not measure the painted cloud or establish that the pale ground is snow.

Two winters: how often it rained and how much fell at Kilkenny G.S.Each grey point is a complete same-season window at one Kilkenny gauge. Red marks 1949; an open square marks the historical mean. January–February is dry and relatively infrequent; November–December combines frequent rain with a low total. Exact values and all comparison windows follow in tables.January–February · Kilkenny G.S.26 complete windows, 1945–1970Rain days (≥0.2 mm)010203040506001002003001945: 144.5 mm; 31 rain days; 0 estimates1946: 172.2 mm; 32 rain days; 0 estimates1947: 207.0 mm; 35 rain days; 0 estimates1948: 263.4 mm; 44 rain days; 0 estimates1950: 169.7 mm; 37 rain days; 2 estimates1951: 174.0 mm; 39 rain days; 0 estimates1952: 105.3 mm; 24 rain days; 0 estimates1953: 67.7 mm; 23 rain days; 4 estimates1954: 122.6 mm; 32 rain days; 2 estimates1955: 161.0 mm; 30 rain days; 0 estimates1956: 126.2 mm; 26 rain days; 3 estimates1957: 122.0 mm; 35 rain days; 0 estimates1958: 215.9 mm; 35 rain days; 2 estimates1959: 96.5 mm; 25 rain days; 0 estimates1960: 156.5 mm; 31 rain days; 0 estimates1961: 180.8 mm; 39 rain days; 0 estimates1962: 135.6 mm; 36 rain days; 0 estimates1963: 79.1 mm; 16 rain days; 2 estimates1964: 60.1 mm; 26 rain days; 0 estimates1965: 106.0 mm; 25 rain days; 0 estimates1966: 209.1 mm; 43 rain days; 1 estimates1967: 178.7 mm; 35 rain days; 3 estimates1968: 118.5 mm; 25 rain days; 3 estimates1969: 185.4 mm; 44 rain days; 2 estimates1970: 248.5 mm; 51 rain days; 0 estimatesHistorical mean: 149.4 mm; 32.5 rain days1949: 77.1 mm; 27 rain days1949 · 27 rain daysTotal precipitation, mmNovember–December · Kilkenny G.S.28 complete windows, 1944–1972Rain days (≥0.2 mm)010203040506001002003001944: 251.4 mm; 43 rain days; 0 estimates1945: 142.9 mm; 24 rain days; 0 estimates1946: 219.7 mm; 43 rain days; 0 estimates1947: 175.8 mm; 38 rain days; 0 estimates1948: 274.9 mm; 42 rain days; 0 estimates1950: 128.0 mm; 32 rain days; 0 estimates1951: 251.3 mm; 46 rain days; 0 estimates1952: 128.2 mm; 32 rain days; 0 estimates1953: 151.0 mm; 39 rain days; 0 estimates1954: 181.5 mm; 39 rain days; 0 estimates1955: 208.0 mm; 35 rain days; 5 estimates1956: 155.2 mm; 37 rain days; 0 estimates1957: 119.8 mm; 26 rain days; 3 estimates1958: 184.1 mm; 36 rain days; 0 estimates1959: 243.7 mm; 46 rain days; 6 estimates1960: 280.5 mm; 44 rain days; 4 estimates1961: 108.7 mm; 27 rain days; 0 estimates1962: 132.8 mm; 29 rain days; 3 estimates1963: 166.9 mm; 32 rain days; 0 estimates1964: 173.0 mm; 35 rain days; 6 estimates1965: 267.8 mm; 43 rain days; 10 estimates1966: 103.2 mm; 42 rain days; 2 estimates1967: 95.8 mm; 32 rain days; 20 estimates1968: 287.7 mm; 42 rain days; 0 estimates1969: 199.4 mm; 36 rain days; 2 estimates1970: 195.8 mm; 43 rain days; 0 estimates1972: 249.5 mm; 38 rain days; 24 estimatesHistorical mean: 185.7 mm; 37.4 rain days1949: 124.0 mm; 46 rain days1949 · 46 rain daysTotal precipitation, mm1949Historical meanOther complete windows
Met Éireann, Kilkenny G.S., station 1213. Two separate comparisons from the same gauge. The late window sits high for frequency but low for amount. No weather value chooses a painting month.
Kilkenny G.S.: the two 1949 windows and their historical means
Window1949 rain, mmDays ≥0.2 mmDays ≥1 mmHistorical mean, mmMean days ≥0.2 mm
January–February77.12716149.432.5
November–December124.04632185.737.4

The historical mean uses each window’s complete record: January–February 1945–1970, November–December 1944–1972 with 1971 excluded. A complete winter window can qualify even when other months in its year are missing. Rain day means at least 0.2 mm; wet day means at least 1 mm. Traces contribute zero to the numerical total and remain traces, not dry days. Target totals and counts reconcile with the provider’s monthly file.

Every historical comparison window, including estimates
Window / yearRain, mmDays ≥0.2 mmDays ≥1 mmEstimated days included
January–February, 1945144.531270
January–February, 1946172.232250
January–February, 1947207.035270
January–February, 1948263.444380
January–February, 194977.127160
January–February, 1950169.737272
January–February, 1951174.039300
January–February, 1952105.324170
January–February, 195367.723164
January–February, 1954122.632212
January–February, 1955161.030230
January–February, 1956126.226233
January–February, 1957122.035290
January–February, 1958215.935272
January–February, 195996.525190
January–February, 1960156.531250
January–February, 1961180.839300
January–February, 1962135.636280
January–February, 196379.116102
January–February, 196460.126150
January–February, 1965106.025190
January–February, 1966209.143371
January–February, 1967178.735263
January–February, 1968118.525223
January–February, 1969185.444342
January–February, 1970248.551400
November–December, 1944251.443300
November–December, 1945142.924200
November–December, 1946219.743330
November–December, 1947175.838310
November–December, 1948274.942330
November–December, 1949124.046320
November–December, 1950128.032210
November–December, 1951251.346340
November–December, 1952128.232270
November–December, 1953151.039210
November–December, 1954181.539320
November–December, 1955208.035285
November–December, 1956155.237280
November–December, 1957119.826183
November–December, 1958184.136270
November–December, 1959243.746406
November–December, 1960280.544414
November–December, 1961108.727200
November–December, 1962132.829193
November–December, 1963166.932270
November–December, 1964173.035226
November–December, 1965267.8433910
November–December, 1966103.242282
November–December, 196795.8321720
November–December, 1968287.742320
November–December, 1969199.436302
November–December, 1970195.843390
November–December, 1972249.5383324

Step 3 · Cold, sunshine and then versus now

A grey picture in a comparatively bright regional winter

Local temperature and sunshine have a different evidence boundary. The downloaded Kilkenny synoptic record starts in 1957. Dublin Airport is a separate regional comparator, 109.6 km from the Kilkenny gauge, not a substitute instrument at the sanatorium. Its latitude, exposure and observing day differ. Its value here is a long record containing both 1949 and the full 1991–2020 reference period.

Dublin recorded 5 air-frost days in January–February and 5 in November–December, against 14.1 and 10.0 in the corresponding 1991–2020 averages. Mean daily minima were 3.5°C and 3.6°C, against 2.3°C and 3.5°C. Early 1949 was milder by this measure; the late window was close to the later average.

Sunshine totalled 154.2 and 141.5 hours, above the respective 140.8 and 127.9 hours in 1991–2020. There were still 12 and 13 days with zero recorded sunshine. The regional record does not support an exceptionally cold or sunless season. It readily permits individual grey days. A painting of one moment need not look like a seasonal average.

Dublin Airport only: 1949 / calculated 1991–2020 average
Window1949 mean minimum, °C1991–2020 mean minimum, °CFrost daysSunshine, hZero-sunshine days
January–February3.52.35 / 14.1154.2 / 140.812 / 14.0
November–December3.63.55 / 10.0141.5 / 127.913 / 15.5

These are calculations from one station file, not a published or homogenized normal. Each reference is the mean of 30 complete same-calendar windows; leap days are retained. Air frost means a daily minimum below 0°C. Zero recorded sunshine is not a measurement of cloud type or a test of fog. No modern Kilkenny series is spliced onto the old rain gauge, and these comparisons do not establish a climate trend.

The four months: local rain and separately labelled regional cold and sunshine
1949Kilkenny rain, mmKilkenny rain daysDublin mean minimum, °CDublin lowest minimum, °CDublin frost daysDublin sunshine, hDublin zero-sunshine days
January34.0143.4−2.3461.18
February43.1133.6−0.4193.14
November79.8224.10.6084.94
December44.2243.0−3.9556.69

A contemporary voice gives the regional comparison texture. The Meteorological Office’s January report, issued on 1 March 1949, describes the later anticyclonic spell:

“Mild, mainly dry and sunny conditions prevailed over most of the British Isles apart from fog.”

Meteorological Office, Monthly Weather Report, January 1949, p. 1; issued 1 March 1949

This is testimony about a broad region, not a report from Kilkenny or the painting’s day. The same page describes cold polar air early in January; its generally mild verdict does not erase short cold spells. The report’s introduction explains that detailed Irish Republic station tables had ceased after 1940, although Irish data still informed its maps. Its coverage must not be silently turned into local evidence.

No 1949 Kilkenny People weather article, local diary entry or artist letter was verified in this search. Irish Newspaper Archives lists the newspaper, but its title listing is not an opened article; the British Newspaper Archive route was inaccessible. This is an access and verification gap, not a claim that no contemporary local account survives.

Step 4 · The artist’s choices and the limits

A winter picture need not be a record winter

Nephos’s reading of the composition: broad diagonal grey marks carry the sky; red accents pick out windows and the foreground, while pale figures punctuate the buildings. Grey is a choice across the picture, not an instrument reading confined to the sky. The visible brushwork and colour arrangement can be described without claiming that O’Malley changed the actual weather.

His retrospective interview says that much of his early work was made outdoors:

“a lot of my early work was done outdoors.”

The same interview; general early practice, not this painting specifically

That general recollection does not establish outdoor execution, a window view or later reworking for this particular painting. There is no checked preparatory study, letter or technical examination here that proves an observed colour, cloud or object was altered. The picture’s winter atmosphere remains evidence worth testing; the result is a contrast between a grey image and seasons that were not exceptionally wet locally or exceptionally frosty and sunless at the regional station.

Daily winter entries: the two stations and their distinct observing days
1949 dateKilkenny rain, mm / traceRain flagDublin minimum, °CMinimum flagDublin sunshine, h
1 January3.901.100.5
2 JanuaryTrace4−1.913.8
3 January7.10−2.316.1
4 January0.000.600.0
5 JanuaryTrace4−0.310.2
6 JanuaryTrace410.400.0
7 January7.205.300.0
8 January0.101.706.3
9 JanuaryTrace41.101.5
10 January0.505.601.4
11 January0.000.805.1
12 January0.200.003.0
13 January0.805.800.5
14 January0.107.200.5
15 January0.307.000.0
16 January1.106.800.2
17 January0.005.402.7
18 JanuaryTrace46.700.7
19 January0.503.200.0
20 JanuaryTrace43.605.9
21 January1.802.904.5
22 January0.804.000.0
23 January5.103.000.1
24 JanuaryTrace4−1.717.0
25 January0.301.700.0
26 January4.007.800.0
27 January0.108.903.7
28 January0.004.700.3
29 January0.002.203.2
30 January0.000.702.8
31 January0.104.301.1
1 February0.102.505.1
2 February0.001.400.0
3 February0.001.604.7
4 February0.002.407.7
5 February0.301.705.3
6 February3.605.600.0
7 February8.004.800.5
8 February10.700.305.0
9 February0.201.606.1
10 February0.401.206.2
11 February5.203.206.8
12 February0.102.607.0
13 February0.005.100.3
14 February0.009.800.0
15 February0.009.300.6
16 February0.008.504.3
17 February0.008.102.8
18 February4.903.600.2
19 February0.003.106.4
20 February2.004.300.1
21 February4.501.904.6
22 February1.503.300.0
23 February0.205.800.4
24 February0.002.804.0
25 February0.101.004.1
26 February0.004.203.8
27 February0.001.006.5
28 February1.30−0.410.6
1 November0.507.101.4
2 November0.007.301.3
3 November0.008.501.2
4 November1.607.900.0
5 November4.602.004.4
6 November0.001.706.3
7 November0.502.706.4
8 November16.001.806.6
9 November0.506.704.4
10 November2.307.404.3
11 November4.706.700.0
12 November6.303.306.7
13 November1.301.905.7
14 November1.801.600.0
15 November8.109.200.5
16 November4.404.902.5
17 November2.003.000.6
18 November0.001.806.0
19 November3.600.606.9
20 November14.302.400.5
21 November3.003.505.9
22 November2.703.701.1
23 November0.001.306.3
24 NovemberTrace43.201.1
25 November0.205.300.0
26 November0.503.901.4
27 November0.004.501.0
28 November0.001.001.0
29 November0.302.301.3
30 November0.606.400.1
1 December0.102.001.2
2 December3.000.400.7
3 December3.007.000.0
4 December0.503.504.9
5 December1.502.605.3
6 December0.804.300.0
7 December2.002.200.5
8 December1.10−2.311.4
9 December0.10−1.910.7
10 December0.00−1.615.8
11 December0.60−3.912.2
12 December0.501.500.1
13 December2.504.101.4
14 December6.701.700.0
15 December2.400.905.1
16 December2.704.400.0
17 December2.302.203.9
18 December0.302.100.0
19 December1.501.702.2
20 December1.200.100.2
21 December3.70−0.515.7
22 December0.006.900.0
23 December0.007.800.0
24 December0.206.306.0
25 December2.106.900.1
26 December0.105.700.0
27 December2.006.602.4
28 December0.307.802.2
29 December1.005.200.2
30 December1.906.700.0
31 December0.103.604.4

Kilkenny rainfall runs from 09:00 UTC on the labelled day to 09:00 the next day; Dublin’s daily file uses 00:00–00:00 UTC. Rain flag 0 means satisfactory and 4 trace; minimum flags 0 and 1 mean positive and negative. All target rainfall and minima are unestimated. Comparison rainfall estimates are retained in the table above; Dublin’s sunshine column supplies no separate daily quality flag. The two monthly products check extraction and arithmetic, not independent observations. Missing calendars are excluded with reasons in the linked data.

A higher-resolution inscription and the object’s back, mount and labels may narrow the date. They may also clarify the public image filename TOM00004, which is not a confirmed accession number. The exact viewpoint, surface condition, snow cover, working sequence and painting day remain unresolved. We do not choose a day because it resembles the picture.

Sources below distinguish downloaded data, a cached web-tool biography extract and a scan-checked weather-report excerpt. The painting was cached for the requested private inspection and is linked, not reproduced. The contemporary report is Crown copyright, reused under the Open Government Licence.

Copyright Met Éireann. Source www.met.ie. This data is published under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) licence. Met Éireann does not accept any liability whatsoever for any error or omission in the data, their availability, or for any loss or damage arising from their use. This material has been modified from the original: Nephos selected the separate windows, calculated totals, counts, means and rankings, and prepared the chart and tables.

Sources

Every source on this page

Each file was downloaded and given a fingerprint (its sha256). The page is rebuilt from these files and will not build if a fingerprint changes, so every number above comes from them rather than being typed in.

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The numbers on this page, as JSONThe method card, as JSON