Nephosthe weather behind the paintings

An open reproduction basis for this canvas has not been established. The University of Saskatchewan shows it on its collection page.

See the painting at USask Art Galleries

Arthur Lismer, Pines, Georgian Bay, 1927. Oil on canvas, 91 × 111.1 cm. Collection of the University of Saskatchewan. Purchase, 1928. 1928.001.001. Painting not reproduced.

A study against the weather record

Arthur Lismer

Pines, Georgian Bay

1927 · Oil on canvas, 91 × 111.1 cm · University of Saskatchewan Art Collection · Purchase, 1928 · 1928.001.001

Dated 1927, but no source found so far puts Lismer on Georgian Bay that year. What was the latest summer it could draw on like?

4thcoolest July–August of 100 at Parry Sound, near Go Home Bay, in 1927. Turbine, near McGregor Bay, ranks 6th of 60. The painted summer remains unknown.

Latest summer: 1927Painted summer and bay unknown

The recordsThe painting at the University of Saskatchewan

The Nephos method

How this study was read

The method in full
  1. What is written

    The University of Saskatchewan dates the canvas 1927 and records its purchase in 1928. It names Georgian Bay, not a particular island or bay. The McMichael describes Lismer’s Georgian Bay holidays as an annual tradition and holds a 1923 photograph of him at McGregor Bay, but no source opened for this study places him there in 1927. Summer 1927 is therefore the latest summer the canvas could draw on, not a documented visit.

  2. Records of those days

    Not found or not yet searched

    • No letter, diary, inscription or exhibition record opened here dates the sketch behind the canvas or names the bay it shows.
    • The holder’s full database record sits behind a reCAPTCHA and was not read; an inscription or exhibition history there could change the window.
    • The 1927 daily files hold no wind observations, so nothing here measures the wind that shapes the pines.
  3. Each claim tested

    • Which summer can the canvas year support? Summer 1927 at the latest, if the canvas was painted after that summer’s sketching. An earlier summer is equally possible: Lismer was photographed at McGregor Bay in 1923 and showed a Go Home Bay canvas in February 1928.
    • Was summer 1927 warm at the two grounds? No. Mean daily highs were 24.1 °C at Turbine (rank 6 coolest of 60) and 22.7 °C at Parry Sound (rank 4 coolest of 100). Both stations agree on a cool summer.
    • Was it wet? Drier than the median at both, but unevenly: 117.7 mm at Turbine (median 145.6 mm) and 90.2 mm at Parry Sound (median 137.6 mm). Gore Bay, the other McGregor Bay candidate, recorded 58.4 mm. Rain varied too much between stations to stand for a single island.
    • Do the records show the wind that bent the pines? No. The daily files carry no wind for 1927, and a pine’s shape records many years of wind, not one summer.
  4. Verdict

    If the 1927 canvas drew on that summer’s sketches, those weeks were cool at both Georgian Bay grounds named in the Lismer sources: rank 6 of 60 and rank 4 of 100 for the coolest mean daily high. Nothing yet shows that he was there that summer, or which bay the picture shows.

    • Partially agreesA cool summer in 1927 at both Georgian Bay grounds Two separate station records agree; whether Lismer sketched that summer is undocumented.
    • UnknownThe summer, place and sky behind the painting No dated sketch, inscription or letter links the canvas to a stay, an island or a day.

What this cannot tell you. July–August 1927 is the latest summer a 1927 canvas could draw on, read as a school-holiday summer. It is a comparison window, not the painted summer. McGregor Bay and Go Home Bay are the two Georgian Bay places named in the Lismer sources read here; the canvas may show either, or neither. Gazetteer points stand in for unknown painting sites. A summer enters a comparison only if all 62 days from 1 July to 31 August have a maximum, a minimum and a precipitation value with no provider flag, except the trace flag on precipitation. ECCC’s trace flag (T) marks an unmeasurable amount below 0.2 mm; it adds nothing to a total. Rank 1 is the coolest (mean daily maximum) or driest (total precipitation) of the accepted summers at that station. Each station is ranked only against itself. Neither station stands on the outer islands, and the two are never averaged. Their archives are not homogenized, and no modern normal is calculated. These daily files carry no 1927 wind observations; the maximum-gust columns are blank. The painting is not reproduced: the holder’s web image carries “© University of Saskatchewan” and no open licence, and its United States publication history is unresolved.

Step 1 · The picture and its date

A canvas dated 1927, bought in 1928

The University of Saskatchewan’s caption gives the essentials: Arthur Lismer, "Pines, Georgian Bay," 1927, oil on canvas, 91 x 111.1 cm. Collection of the University of Saskatchewan. Purchase, 1928. 1928.001.001. That caption and the linked-data copy of the record name Georgian Bay but no island, inlet or season. The canvas is large, about 91 by 111 cm. No sketch, letter, inscription or exhibition record read for this study says when or where Lismer drew the pines it shows.

Lismer did go to Georgian Bay. The McMichael Canadian Art Collection, which holds Lismer’s papers, says his family vacations on Georgian Bay were an annual tradition, timed around his teaching schedule, and its archive photograph is captioned Arthur Lismer at McGregor Bay, Georgian Bay, 1923. In February 1928 the Art Gallery of Toronto’s Group of Seven exhibition listed Lismer canvases titled Evening Silhouette, Georgian Bay, A Georgian Bay backwater and Rock, Pine and Sunlight, Go-Home Bay (catalogue text). Pines, Georgian Bay is not in that list, and how the university came to buy it is not established here.

No source opened for this study places Lismer on Georgian Bay in 1927. A canvas dated 1927 could draw on that summer’s sketches at the latest, or on any earlier summer. Nephos therefore compares 1 July–31 August 1927, the school holidays of the latest possible summer. It is a comparison window, not a documented stay.

Nephos’s reading of the holder’s photograph, offered as a description and not as evidence: tall pines with flattened, streaming crowns stand on bare rock above open water, low hills behind, and the sky glows yellow near the horizon under banded cloud.

Step 2 · Two grounds, two stations

The bay is too large for one record

The gazetteer points for McGregor Bay, in the north-west of Georgian Bay, and Go Home Bay, on its east shore, are 179 km apart. Because the picture names neither, Nephos keeps one station for each and never averages them.

Turbine (ECCC station 4135, climate ID 6068980) is 39.4 km from the gazetteer point for McGregor Bay, with daily records from 1914 to 1990. Gore Bay, on Manitoulin Island, also has a complete 1927 summer but is 61.7 km away. Parry Sound (ECCC station 4487, climate ID 6116254) is 38.0 km from the gazetteer point for Go Home Bay, with daily records from 1874 to 1976. Midland is nearer, at 26.1 km, but its 1927 file has no July or August values.

Both chosen stations stand on the mainland rather than the outer islands. Their records come from Environment and Climate Change Canada under the Open Government Licence, one file per year, each checked by fingerprint.

Step 3 · Summer 1927 in each record

A cool summer at both, drier than usual

At Turbine, the mean daily high for July and August 1927 was 24.1 °C, rank 6 coolest of 60 complete summers (1916–1983); the median is 25.7 °C. At Parry Sound it was 22.7 °C, rank 4 coolest of 100 (1876–1976); the median is 24.6 °C. Days reaching 30 °C: 1 at Turbine, 1 at Parry Sound. The two records agree on a cool summer.

Rain is less consistent. Turbine totalled 117.7 mm (median 145.6 mm, rank 20 driest of 60); Parry Sound 90.2 mm (median 137.6 mm, rank 14 driest of 100). Gore Bay, the other candidate for McGregor Bay, recorded just 58.4 mm. Summer showers fell unevenly, so no one gauge stands for a single island.

Mean daily high in July and August, every year at Turbine and Parry Sound, with 1927 markedEach dot is one complete July–August at one station. 1927 is red. Crosses mark years excluded for missing or flagged days. The two stations are drawn separately and never averaged. These are not observations at the painting’s site.TURBINE · FOR MCGREGOR BAY · 39 KM22°24°26°28°30°×1914: excluded, incomplete or flagged×1915: excluded, incomplete or flagged1916: 28.6 °C1917: 24.7 °C1918: 25.3 °C1919: 25.9 °C1920: 24.9 °C1921: 27.4 °C1922: 24.9 °C1923: 24.8 °C1924: 23.2 °C1925: 25.1 °C1926: 24.9 °C1927: 24.1 °C1928: 24.0 °C1929: 23.9 °C1930: 25.6 °C1931: 26.0 °C1932: 25.7 °C1933: 26.9 °C1934: 25.6 °C1935: 27.7 °C1936: 26.6 °C1937: 27.8 °C1938: 26.9 °C1939: 26.8 °C1940: 25.7 °C1941: 25.5 °C1942: 25.1 °C1943: 25.4 °C1944: 27.3 °C1945: 26.2 °C1946: 25.9 °C1947: 27.8 °C1948: 27.1 °C×1949: excluded, incomplete or flagged1950: 24.7 °C1951: 25.0 °C1952: 25.8 °C1953: 27.3 °C1954: 25.9 °C1955: 30.0 °C1956: 25.1 °C1957: 26.5 °C1958: 25.1 °C1959: 27.4 °C×1960: excluded, incomplete or flagged×1961: excluded, incomplete or flagged1962: 27.1 °C1963: 25.5 °C1964: 24.8 °C1965: 22.9 °C1966: 26.3 °C1967: 24.7 °C1968: 24.8 °C1969: 27.3 °C×1970: excluded, incomplete or flagged1971: 24.8 °C1972: 24.5 °C1973: 27.1 °C1974: 26.5 °C1975: 28.8 °C×1976: excluded, incomplete or flagged1977: 24.6 °C1978: 23.6 °C×1979: excluded, incomplete or flagged1980: 24.6 °C×1981: excluded, incomplete or flagged×1982: excluded, incomplete or flagged1983: 26.3 °C×1984: excluded, incomplete or flagged×1985: excluded, incomplete or flagged×1986: excluded, incomplete or flagged×1987: excluded, incomplete or flagged×1988: excluded, incomplete or flagged×1989: excluded, incomplete or flagged×1990: excluded, incomplete or flagged1927: 24.1 °C, rank 6 coolest of 60PARRY SOUND · FOR GO HOME BAY · 38 KM22°24°26°28°30°×1874: excluded, incomplete or flagged×1875: excluded, incomplete or flagged1876: 25.5 °C1877: 25.1 °C1878: 25.6 °C1879: 24.1 °C1880: 23.9 °C1881: 25.9 °C1882: 24.0 °C1883: 22.1 °C1884: 22.9 °C1885: 23.0 °C1886: 23.1 °C1887: 25.1 °C1888: 23.5 °C1889: 23.5 °C1890: 22.7 °C1891: 22.8 °C1892: 24.2 °C1893: 24.1 °C1894: 23.6 °C1895: 23.2 °C1896: 24.3 °C1897: 25.0 °C1898: 25.1 °C1899: 24.5 °C1900: 25.3 °C1901: 25.3 °C1902: 23.9 °C1903: 22.7 °C1904: 23.7 °C1905: 25.6 °C1906: 26.3 °C1907: 25.8 °C1908: 25.9 °C1909: 25.8 °C1910: 25.7 °C1911: 26.6 °C1912: 24.4 °C1913: 25.3 °C1914: 25.5 °C1915: 23.7 °C1916: 28.9 °C1917: 24.3 °C1918: 26.7 °C1919: 26.6 °C1920: 24.6 °C1921: 28.3 °C1922: 25.0 °C1923: 25.6 °C1924: 23.9 °C1925: 24.9 °C1926: 23.8 °C1927: 22.7 °C1928: 24.0 °C1929: 23.6 °C1930: 24.4 °C1931: 25.6 °C1932: 24.0 °C1933: 25.9 °C1934: 24.7 °C1935: 26.4 °C1936: 24.6 °C1937: 26.4 °C1938: 26.1 °C1939: 25.6 °C1940: 24.3 °C1941: 24.6 °C1942: 24.6 °C1943: 24.2 °C1944: 25.6 °C1945: 24.5 °C1946: 24.0 °C1947: 26.1 °C1948: 24.9 °C1949: 25.9 °C1950: 23.1 °C×1951: excluded, incomplete or flagged1952: 25.7 °C1953: 25.0 °C1954: 23.3 °C1955: 27.6 °C1956: 22.7 °C1957: 23.5 °C1958: 23.8 °C1959: 25.8 °C1960: 23.7 °C1961: 24.1 °C1962: 25.3 °C1963: 23.5 °C1964: 24.4 °C1965: 22.3 °C1966: 25.8 °C1967: 22.9 °C1968: 23.3 °C1969: 25.0 °C1970: 24.4 °C1971: 22.8 °C1972: 23.2 °C1973: 25.4 °C1974: 24.8 °C1975: 25.6 °C1976: 24.1 °C1927: 22.7 °C, rank 4 coolest of 100188019001920194019601980Dashed line: each station’s median. × excluded year. Weather records, not the painting.
ECCC historical daily data, Turbine (4135) and Parry Sound (4487). Each dot is the mean of the 62 daily highs, 1 July–31 August. A season counts only if every day has a high, a low and a precipitation value with no provider flag other than trace. The archives are not homogenized, and no modern normal is calculated.
July and August 1927, from the daily files.
Station · monthMean high, °CMean low, °CPrecip., mmDays ≥1 mm
Turbine · July25.39.475.09
Turbine · August22.95.842.78
Parry Sound · July23.713.462.710
Parry Sound · August21.710.927.54
Every day, 1 July–31 August 1927, at both stations
DateTurbine high / low, °CPrecip., mmParry Sound high / low, °CPrecip., mm
1927-07-0133.9 / 15.60.032.8 / 17.80.0
1927-07-0229.4 / 15.06.628.9 / 20.60.3
1927-07-0317.8 / 7.20.021.1 / 12.80.0
1927-07-0422.2 / 3.30.020.0 / 5.60.0
1927-07-0525.0 / 2.20.023.3 / 8.90.0
1927-07-0620.0 / 8.324.116.1 / 10.09.1
1927-07-0723.3 / 12.20.017.8 / 12.81.5
1927-07-0826.7 / 6.11.523.9 / 8.30.0
1927-07-0927.2 / 7.20.025.6 / 10.60.0
1927-07-1027.8 / 9.40.027.8 / 14.40.0
1927-07-1127.8 / 8.30.028.9 / 14.40.0
1927-07-1227.8 / 13.90.025.0 / 16.71.0
1927-07-1325.6 / 12.83.626.7 / 15.612.7
1927-07-1426.7 / 14.40.023.3 / 14.40.0
1927-07-1527.8 / 11.10.025.6 / 15.60.5
1927-07-1628.3 / 12.20.028.9 / 15.60.8
1927-07-1723.3 / 13.923.924.4 / 13.98.4
1927-07-1822.8 / 5.00.021.7 / 13.3Trace
1927-07-1921.1 / 4.40.020.6 / 14.4Trace
1927-07-2023.3 / 2.20.022.8 / 12.20.0
1927-07-2123.3 / 3.31.322.2 / 14.40.0
1927-07-2220.6 / 12.88.122.2 / 16.110.7
1927-07-2323.9 / 10.00.017.8 / 13.93.0
1927-07-2427.2 / 12.20.022.8 / 9.47.1
1927-07-2527.2 / 10.00.023.9 / 12.80.0
1927-07-2623.9 / 12.21.826.1 / 13.90.0
1927-07-2726.7 / 13.30.021.7 / 15.06.1
1927-07-2827.8 / 10.04.126.1 / 13.31.5
1927-07-2923.9 / 10.00.022.2 / 16.10.0
1927-07-3025.0 / 6.10.023.9 / 11.70.0
1927-07-3126.7 / 7.20.021.1 / 12.20.0
1927-08-0123.3 / 4.41.823.9 / 12.8Trace
1927-08-0221.7 / 0.00.019.4 / 5.00.0
1927-08-0325.0 / 8.910.423.3 / 12.20.0
1927-08-0421.7 / 8.95.123.9 / 12.22.0
1927-08-0521.7 / 6.70.021.1 / 10.0Trace
1927-08-0625.6 / 5.03.822.2 / 10.60.0
1927-08-0726.1 / 12.20.025.6 / 14.40.0
1927-08-0823.9 / 10.00.026.1 / 15.610.7
1927-08-0922.2 / 3.90.017.2 / 7.80.0
1927-08-1023.9 / 1.70.022.8 / 11.10.0
1927-08-1126.1 / 10.03.824.4 / 12.20.0
1927-08-1223.9 / 4.40.024.4 / 11.70.0
1927-08-1325.0 / 3.30.026.1 / 10.00.0
1927-08-1420.6 / 4.40.022.8 / 15.6Trace
1927-08-1521.7 / 2.80.020.0 / 6.70.0
1927-08-1623.3 / 8.30.021.1 / 10.00.0
1927-08-1721.1 / 4.40.016.1 / 7.80.0
1927-08-1818.9 / 8.30.317.2 / 11.7Trace
1927-08-1923.3 / 11.10.021.1 / 12.80.0
1927-08-2025.0 / 6.10.021.7 / 11.70.0
1927-08-2125.0 / 2.20.021.7 / 12.80.0
1927-08-2225.0 / 5.67.627.2 / 12.80.0
1927-08-2318.3 / 11.70.021.1 / 12.8Trace
1927-08-2420.6 / 1.10.017.2 / 4.40.0
1927-08-2523.3 / 1.10.022.2 / 8.90.0
1927-08-2623.9 / 1.70.022.8 / 6.70.0
1927-08-2723.9 / 1.70.021.1 / 7.80.0
1927-08-2822.8 / 7.20.020.6 / 12.20.0
1927-08-2920.0 / 5.61.816.1 / 12.89.7
1927-08-3021.7 / 10.08.122.8 / 13.35.1
1927-08-3120.6 / 7.20.018.9 / 12.20.0

Every accepted and excluded summer, each file’s address and fingerprint, and the daily values are in the downloadable data.

Step 4 · What the records can and cannot say

The pines record more than one summer

If Lismer drew these pines in summer 1927, he did so in a cool season on both shores of the bay. That is as far as the records go. They do not show that he was there that year, which bay the picture shows, or the light the sky describes.

The picture’s strongest weather is its wind, and that is beyond these records. The 1927 daily files carry no wind observations. A pine’s shape also builds up over many years of wind, so even a full 1927 wind record would not explain the trees.

The University of Saskatchewan’s database record, behind a reCAPTCHA during this study, may hold an inscription or exhibition history. Either could fix the year or the place and turn this comparison into a test.

The painting is linked rather than reproduced. The holder’s web image carries © University of Saskatchewan and no open licence, and its publication history in the United States, where this site is served, is unresolved.

See the painting on the University of Saskatchewan’s collection page

Sources

Every source on this page

Each file was downloaded and given a fingerprint (its sha256). The page is rebuilt from these files and will not build if a fingerprint changes, so every number above comes from them rather than being typed in.

  1. USask Art Galleries, About the Collection (holder’s caption for 1928.001.001)University of Saskatchewan web page; “© University of Saskatchewan”; short caption quoted · retrieved 16 October 2026sha256 17286f0795aacade0f092c1a5640501cb99b6985169f72aac6faa64c55b730b5HTML download. The SaskCollections object record (kenderdine/Detail/objects/900) returned a reCAPTCHA page and was not read.
  2. LINCS, University of Saskatchewan Art Collection graph, object 900 (SPARQL CONSTRUCT)LINCS USask Art dataset, CC BY 4.0 · retrieved 16 October 2026sha256 0902b11c72f52b5c3f2ad4009f7f7c9d6403b43e93285c6e9dda0124e4a5ab96Linked-data copy of the holder’s CollectiveAccess record: title, accession, medium, owner. Query for <https://saskcollections.org/kenderdine/Detail/objects/900> in graph <http://graph.lincsproject.ca/usask-art>.
  3. McMichael Canadian Art Collection, “Arthur Lismer in Georgian Bay” (Linda Morita, 2 November 2025)Copyright McMichael Canadian Art Collection; short quotations only · retrieved 16 October 2026sha256 ac3c3e9ba339861f75e3df60e5879af555d21775e9b88b60d19d857c1dd0814fHTML download. Describes the Lismer family papers acquired in 2014; the papers themselves were not read.
  4. Art Gallery of Toronto, Catalogue of an Exhibition of Canadian Paintings by the Group of Seven, February 1928 (OCR text)Internet Archive item: “© Art Gallery of Ontario. Reproduced with permission.” Titles quoted only · retrieved 16 October 2026sha256 064eee4d8597375f69d307ef854fae0ee5aae3a926e5f5d97fe591f979b9cb99Internet Archive OCR (_djvu.txt). Lismer’s entries 45–54 were read in the text; the scan was not separately inspected.
  5. Canadian Geographical Names Database, McGregor Bay (FDOAA)Natural Resources Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada · retrieved 16 October 2026sha256 667588687120154a19608b0ae0f3731a8d17d2482f697046be035100463067abGazetteer point for the named bay, not a painting site.
  6. Canadian Geographical Names Database, Go Home Bay (FBIBN)Natural Resources Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada · retrieved 16 October 2026sha256 c867a18d772cab5faed6705beb4177434f7e11efae3a6fd5a777b26ea533032fGazetteer point for the named bay, not a painting site.
  7. Environment and Climate Change Canada, historical climate station inventoryOpen Government Licence – Canada · retrieved 16 October 2026sha256 371e6b44ad10bd42d55324d59566058faa2e3a5ab631b81cb929fcb7d1d1c24fCatalogue coordinates and record spans; not a verified history of 1927 instrument exposures.
  8. ECCC historical daily data, Turbine (station 4135) and Parry Sound (station 4487): one CSV per yearOpen Government Licence – Canada · retrieved 16 October 2026sha256 e637137649079905c2e21f614c6203c6c83fc1bf83eb1ecc162b6ca79f00a2beManifest of 182 annual CSV downloads, including the 1927 files for the Gore Bay and Midland candidates; each file’s own URL and sha256 is checked on rebuild and kept in the study data.
  9. ECCC historical climate data glossaryOpen Government Licence – Canada · retrieved 16 October 2026sha256 3e118ab11894d210d2ffbfa1c7d3cf065623b4c0ec8a76b796582130b644399aDefines “Trace” as an unmeasurable or insignificant amount, less than 0.2 mm.
  10. Open Government Licence – CanadaGovernment of Canada · retrieved 16 October 2026sha256 d7648d6d694d66a0891502f85c3383f9263d5e541b47e14fbf33450974af158fLicence for the ECCC climate data and the gazetteer points.

The numbers on this page, as JSONThe method card, as JSON