{
 "schema": "nephos.method.v1",
 "slug": "lismer-pines-georgian-bay-1927",
 "title": "Lismer, Pines, Georgian Bay: dated 1927, purchased 1928",
 "urls": [
  "/studies/lismer-pines-georgian-bay-1927"
 ],
 "written": {
  "summary": "The University of Saskatchewan dates the canvas 1927 and records its purchase in 1928. It names Georgian Bay, not a particular island or bay. The McMichael describes Lismer’s Georgian Bay holidays as an annual tradition and holds a 1923 photograph of him at McGregor Bay, but no source opened for this study places him there in 1927. Summer 1927 is therefore the latest summer the canvas could draw on, not a documented visit.",
  "items": [
   {
    "quote": "Arthur Lismer, \"Pines, Georgian Bay,\" 1927, oil on canvas, 91 x 111.1 cm. Collection of the University of Saskatchewan. Purchase, 1928. 1928.001.001",
    "source": "USask Art Galleries, About the Collection (holder’s caption for 1928.001.001)",
    "url": "https://kagcag.usask.ca/collections/about.php"
   },
   {
    "quote": "family vacations on Georgian Bay were an annual tradition, timed around his teaching schedule",
    "source": "McMichael Canadian Art Collection, “Arthur Lismer in Georgian Bay” (Linda Morita, 2 November 2025)",
    "url": "https://mcmichael.com/from-the-archive/arthur-lismer-in-georgian-bay/"
   },
   {
    "quote": "Arthur Lismer at McGregor Bay, Georgian Bay, 1923",
    "source": "McMichael Canadian Art Collection, “Arthur Lismer in Georgian Bay” (Linda Morita, 2 November 2025)",
    "url": "https://mcmichael.com/from-the-archive/arthur-lismer-in-georgian-bay/"
   },
   {
    "quote": "Rock, Pine and Sunlight, Go-Home Bay",
    "source": "Art Gallery of Toronto, Catalogue of an Exhibition of Canadian Paintings by the Group of Seven, February 1928 (OCR text)",
    "url": "https://archive.org/details/catalogueofexhib00artg_3"
   }
  ]
 },
 "records": [
  {
   "name": "Turbine, ECCC station 4135 (for McGregor Bay)",
   "detail": "39.4 km from the gazetteer point for McGregor Bay. Complete daily highs, lows and precipitation for 1 July–31 August 1927; ranked against 60 complete summers, 1916–1983.",
   "url": "https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/bulk_data_e.html?format=csv&stationID=4135&Year=1927&Month=1&Day=1&timeframe=2&submit=Download+Data"
  },
  {
   "name": "Parry Sound, ECCC station 4487 (for Go Home Bay)",
   "detail": "38.0 km from the gazetteer point for Go Home Bay. Same window and completeness rule; ranked against 100 complete summers, 1876–1976.",
   "url": "https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/bulk_data_e.html?format=csv&stationID=4487&Year=1927&Month=1&Day=1&timeframe=2&submit=Download+Data"
  }
 ],
 "gaps": [
  "No letter, diary, inscription or exhibition record opened here dates the sketch behind the canvas or names the bay it shows.",
  "The holder’s full database record sits behind a reCAPTCHA and was not read; an inscription or exhibition history there could change the window.",
  "The 1927 daily files hold no wind observations, so nothing here measures the wind that shapes the pines."
 ],
 "tests": [
  {
   "claim": "Which summer can the canvas year support?",
   "result": "Summer 1927 at the latest, if the canvas was painted after that summer’s sketching. An earlier summer is equally possible: Lismer was photographed at McGregor Bay in 1923 and showed a Go Home Bay canvas in February 1928."
  },
  {
   "claim": "Was summer 1927 warm at the two grounds?",
   "result": "No. Mean daily highs were 24.1 °C at Turbine (rank 6 coolest of 60) and 22.7 °C at Parry Sound (rank 4 coolest of 100). Both stations agree on a cool summer."
  },
  {
   "claim": "Was it wet?",
   "result": "Drier than the median at both, but unevenly: 117.7 mm at Turbine (median 145.6 mm) and 90.2 mm at Parry Sound (median 137.6 mm). Gore Bay, the other McGregor Bay candidate, recorded 58.4 mm. Rain varied too much between stations to stand for a single island."
  },
  {
   "claim": "Do the records show the wind that bent the pines?",
   "result": "No. The daily files carry no wind for 1927, and a pine’s shape records many years of wind, not one summer."
  }
 ],
 "finding": "If the 1927 canvas drew on that summer’s sketches, those weeks were cool at both Georgian Bay grounds named in the Lismer sources: rank 6 of 60 and rank 4 of 100 for the coolest mean daily high. Nothing yet shows that he was there that summer, or which bay the picture shows.",
 "verdicts": [
  {
   "claim": "A cool summer in 1927 at both Georgian Bay grounds",
   "verdict": "Partially agrees",
   "reason": "Two separate station records agree; whether Lismer sketched that summer is undocumented."
  },
  {
   "claim": "The summer, place and sky behind the painting",
   "verdict": "Unknown",
   "reason": "No dated sketch, inscription or letter links the canvas to a stay, an island or a day."
  }
 ],
 "limits": [
  "July–August 1927 is the latest summer a 1927 canvas could draw on, read as a school-holiday summer. It is a comparison window, not the painted summer.",
  "McGregor Bay and Go Home Bay are the two Georgian Bay places named in the Lismer sources read here; the canvas may show either, or neither. Gazetteer points stand in for unknown painting sites.",
  "A summer enters a comparison only if all 62 days from 1 July to 31 August have a maximum, a minimum and a precipitation value with no provider flag, except the trace flag on precipitation.",
  "ECCC’s trace flag (T) marks an unmeasurable amount below 0.2 mm; it adds nothing to a total.",
  "Rank 1 is the coolest (mean daily maximum) or driest (total precipitation) of the accepted summers at that station. Each station is ranked only against itself.",
  "Neither station stands on the outer islands, and the two are never averaged. Their archives are not homogenized, and no modern normal is calculated.",
  "These daily files carry no 1927 wind observations; the maximum-gust columns are blank.",
  "The painting is not reproduced: the holder’s web image carries “© University of Saskatchewan” and no open licence, and its United States publication history is unresolved."
 ]
}