Constable’s Stormy Sunset: grey clouds, blue openings and pale pink light below, with a red disc partly hidden at left. — John Constable, Cloud Study: Stormy Sunset, 1821–1822. Courtesy National Gallery of Art, Washington, 1998.20.1. Gift of Louise Mellon in honor of Mr. and Mrs. Paul Mellon. CC0 / public domain.

A study against the weather record

John Constable

Cloud Study: Stormy Sunset

1821–1822 · National Gallery of Art, Washington, 1998.20.1

Dark clouds break around blue sky and pale evening light. Which evenings in Constable’s Hampstead seasons have the same storm-to-clearing sequence in the records?

2candidate evenings in Howard’s Tottenham notes: heavy weather followed by a fine evening. Neither is proposed as the painting’s date.

Sequence has recorded parallelsPainted day unknown

The records The painting at the NGA

The Nephos method

How this study was read

The method in full

1
What is written
Nephos reads dark grey-violet clouds breaking around blue gaps and pale gold and pink light as an evening clearing after a storm. This is Nephos’s reading, not a museum statement. The NGA dates the sketch to 1821–1822; no readable date annotation identifies a day or month.
- This oil sketch is not visibly annotatedPhilip Conisbee (2000), NGA object record, 1998.20.1.
2
Records of those days
- Howard’s daily weather notes, 1821 and 1822Main and Tottenham notes screened separately for strong wet weather followed by an explicitly fine evening. Candidate entries are both Tottenham, not Hampstead.
- Dated Hampstead letters and sketchesRhyne’s published chronology bounds conservative search intervals; Leslie’s edition supplies Constable’s letters. Neither establishes daily presence or this sheet’s date.
- Public Ledger, 9 July 1822A contemporary account of the 5 July London storm, read in Howard’s reprint; original newspaper issue not inspected.
- Met Office HadCET daily meansEach screened interval compared with the same calendar dates in 1991–2020; regional temperature only.
Not found or not yet searched
- The painting has no recovered day or month.
- Hampstead residence is not continuously documented; the July candidate has no same-day activity evidence in this set.
- One main-register date is ambiguous; unrecorded evening weather stays unknown.
3
Each claim tested
- Does the visual reading have documentary parallels during the Hampstead seasons? Yes: 24 October 1821 and 20 July 1822 record heavy weather followed by a fine evening at Tottenham. They are compatible candidates, never proposed painting dates.
- How sensitive is the shortlist to the definition? 17 July 1822 adds a rain-to-fine evening if the requirement for explicit strong-weather wording is relaxed.
- Do dated sketches identify one of these evenings? No dated storm sketch in the inspected comparison set falls within seven days of either strict candidate. The other dated sketches distinguish noon clearing, showers and an approaching storm.
- How do the screened intervals compare with the modern reference? Both are cooler in HadCET than their 1991–2020 same-calendar averages. This does not test changes in storm or sunset frequency.
4
Verdict
The painted transition has recorded parallels: two strict candidate evenings and one weaker case. The weather sequence is historically grounded; the painted day remains unknown.
- Partially agreesHeavy weather followed by a fine evening in the screened seasons Explicit in Howard’s Tottenham notes; compatible with Nephos’s reading but not observed at the easel.
- UnknownThe painting’s date and particular storm The candidates do not supply independent dating evidence.

What this cannot tell you. The conservative intervals are 6 July–3 November 1821 and 2 July–7 October 1822, not exact residence dates or an inferred painting season. Fine evening is a clearing proxy, not a cloud amount or sunset colour measurement. No station values are pooled. HadCET remains regional; the two historical intervals do not establish a climate trend. Wet paint and a fingerprint concern making; they do not prove weather was changed.

Step 1 · Read the picture

An evening opening after the storm

Nephos’s reading of the picture, not a museum statement: Dark grey-violet storm clouds breaking up, with pale gold and pink light low in the sky: an evening clearing after a storm.

Blue gaps separate the darker cloud masses; lighter edges and warm light below suggest the sky opening as daylight falls. The preceding storm is an interpretation, not a directly visible rainfall measurement. The cloud edges are broken and irregular; the broad dark band below makes the pink and gold light feel newly exposed. This reading agrees with Philip Conisbee’s post-storm interpretation, but the visible reasons and the test here are Nephos’s.

The test: do surviving daily notes record strong wet weather followed by a fine evening during Constable’s documented Hampstead seasons? That sequence is more specific than a search for any storm. It can produce an environmental shortlist even while the painting’s date remains open.

The NGA catalogue dates the work to 1821–1822 and states: This oil sketch is not visibly annotated. No candidate below is proposed as its date.

Step 2 · Screen the seasons

2 evenings meet the strict rule

Howard’s The Climate of London preserves both sequences in its explicitly labelled Tottenham notes. Each moves from heavy wet weather to a fine evening on the same day. They are candidates consistent with the picture’s reading, at another London-area location. Neither entry records the colours of the sunset.

The screen uses dated letters and sketches to bound portions of the Hampstead seasons: 6 July–3 November 1821 and 2 July–7 October 1822. Rhyne’s chronology supplies these documentary anchors. They are search intervals, not the painting’s season, exact residence dates or proof that Constable was on the Heath every evening.

Howard’s daily notes, screened within independently documented portions of the Hampstead seasons. Filled red squares meet the strong-weather and evening tests; the outline relaxes only the weather-strength test. Documentary dots come from selected letters and dated sketches, not from the weather. Read every screened day.

Candidate evenings consistent with the visual reading; not proposed painting dates
Evening	Howard’s words	Constable’s documented activity nearby in time
24 October 1821	Tottenham: About 3, p. m. a heavy storm of hail and rain: fine evening—a brilliant meteor passed to the NW. p. 63	Hampstead letter to Fisher, 23 October 1821 (1 day away). No dated storm sketch within seven days in the inspected comparison set.
20 July 1822	Tottenham: Very heavy showers: fine evening. p. 87	Open-air Hampstead oil sketch, 29 July 1822 (9 days away). No dated storm sketch within seven days in the inspected comparison set.

A weaker match, 17 July 1822: Driving rain at intervals a. m.: very fine evening. Howard, Tottenham, p. 87. The evening is explicit; the rain’s heaviness is not. Keeping this separate shows how the shortlist changes when the definition is relaxed.

The October candidate sits immediately after Constable’s own Hampstead letter. The July candidate has weaker evidence of his presence: it falls between dated Hampstead sketches, with no same-day letter or sketch in this set. It remains conditional on his being there. A weather resemblance cannot repair that documentary gap.

How the screen works, and where it can miss an evening

Same dated note and same observing stream must state storm, thunder, or heavy rain/showers, followed by explicit fine/clear evening wording. Fine evening is a proxy for clearing, not proof of a cloudless sky or sunset colour. A rain-to-fine-evening note without the strong-weather wording is relaxed only. Afternoon or night clearing alone does not pass.

The main register and Tottenham notes are screened separately. A storm at one site is never joined to a fine evening at the other. Brief or absent evening descriptions are not evidence of bad weather. This is a count of explicit documentary matches, not the frequency of clearing sunsets or a probability for the painting’s date.

The first interval starts with a Hampstead letter to W. H. Carpenter and ends with a Hampstead letter to Fisher. The second starts with a dated thunder-squall sketch and ends with the letter reporting his sky studies. Earlier and later parts of each residence are outside this conservative screen. The sources also document travel between Hampstead and London.

Howard’s October 1822 notes print 4 twice and omit 5. We retain that ambiguity. There is no separately labelled Tottenham note for every day; missing notes stay missing. No rain-column blank is converted to zero. The modern chronology is an index to published correspondence, not a manuscript inspection.

Every screened day and its surviving weather notes

Verbatim note text; line breaks and line-end hyphenation normalized. Separate observing streams retained.
Date	Surviving notes	Screen result
6 July 1821	Main register: Cloudy. p. 56	No qualifying sequence recorded
7 July 1821	Main register: Cloudy: showers. p. 56	No qualifying sequence recorded
8 July 1821	Main register: Cloudy. p. 56	No qualifying sequence recorded
9 July 1821	Main register: Fine. p. 56	No qualifying sequence recorded
10 July 1821	Main register: Fine. p. 56	No qualifying sequence recorded
11 July 1821	Main register: Fine. p. 56	No qualifying sequence recorded
12 July 1821	Main register: Fine. p. 56 Tottenham: Very beautiful sunset. p. 56	No qualifying sequence recorded
13 July 1821	Main register: Cloudy. p. 56 Tottenham: Hazy: a little rain, evening. p. 57	No qualifying sequence recorded
14 July 1821	Main register: Cloudy. p. 56 Tottenham: Fine day: very fine sunset. p. 57	No qualifying sequence recorded
15 July 1821	Main register: Rainy. p. 56	No qualifying sequence recorded
16 July 1821	Main register: Cloudy. p. 56	No qualifying sequence recorded
17 July 1821	Main register: Cloudy. p. 56	No qualifying sequence recorded
18 July 1821	Main register: Fine. p. 56	No qualifying sequence recorded
19 July 1821	Main register: Fine: some thunder in the evening, and a brilliant meteor. p. 56 Tottenham: Very fine and hot day: heavy clouds in the W, which afterwards passed off to the northward, where was much brilliant lightning, about 9, p. m.: one clap followed, and lightning in other quarters. p. 57	No qualifying sequence recorded
20 July 1821	Main register: Fine. p. 56	No qualifying sequence recorded
21 July 1821	Main register: Fine. p. 56	No qualifying sequence recorded
22 July 1821	Main register: Fine. p. 56	No qualifying sequence recorded
23 July 1821	Main register: Showery: some hail at 4, p. m. p. 56	No qualifying sequence recorded
24 July 1821	Main register: Showery. p. 56	No qualifying sequence recorded
25 July 1821	Main register: Showery. p. 56	No qualifying sequence recorded
26 July 1821	Main register: Cloudy. p. 56	No qualifying sequence recorded
27 July 1821	Main register: Fine. p. 56	No qualifying sequence recorded
28 July 1821	Main register: Fine. p. 56	No qualifying sequence recorded
29 July 1821	Main register: Cloudy. p. 56	No qualifying sequence recorded
30 July 1821	Main register: Showery. p. 56	No qualifying sequence recorded
31 July 1821	Main register: Fine. p. 56	No qualifying sequence recorded
1 August 1821	Main register: Fine. p. 58	No qualifying sequence recorded
2 August 1821	Main register: Morning, fine: showery in the afternoon. p. 58	No qualifying sequence recorded
3 August 1821	Main register: Fine. p. 58	No qualifying sequence recorded
4 August 1821	Main register: Fine. p. 58	No qualifying sequence recorded
5 August 1821	Main register: Fine. p. 58	No qualifying sequence recorded
6 August 1821	Main register: Fine. p. 58	No qualifying sequence recorded
7 August 1821	Main register: Cloudy. p. 58	No qualifying sequence recorded
8 August 1821	Main register: Rainy. p. 58	No qualifying sequence recorded
9 August 1821	Main register: Fine. p. 58	No qualifying sequence recorded
10 August 1821	Main register: Fine. p. 58	No qualifying sequence recorded
11 August 1821	Main register: Morning, fine: rain in the afternoon. p. 58 Tottenham: A brilliant meteor between 8 and 9, p. m. p. 58	No qualifying sequence recorded
12 August 1821	Main register: A few drops of rain. p. 58 Main register: Fine. p. 58	No qualifying sequence recorded
13 August 1821	Main register: Fine. p. 58	No qualifying sequence recorded
14 August 1821	Main register: Rainy. p. 58	No qualifying sequence recorded
15 August 1821	Main register: Cloudy. p. 58	No qualifying sequence recorded
16 August 1821	Main register: Cloudy. p. 58	No qualifying sequence recorded
17 August 1821	Main register: Cloudy. p. 58	No qualifying sequence recorded
18 August 1821	Main register: The sky this morning was obscured by a haze, through which the sun appeared of a pale blue colour, resembling, in some degree, the flame of sulphur, or of a Bengal light. This phenomenon was observed in several distant places. I have been informed that it was noticed in Essex and Worcestershire, and by many persons about London. I saw it in Sussex, where it lasted from about nine till near noon, and appeared nearly of the colour of watch-spring steel, and was occasionally hid by Cirrostrati, which were floating about. It may be noticed, that the weather, which had been for some time unsettled, cleared up the next day, and continued fine and very warm for about a week. p. 58 Tottenham: In the evening, a beautiful ground fog. p. 59	No qualifying sequence recorded
19 August 1821	Main register: Fine. p. 59	No qualifying sequence recorded
20 August 1821	Main register: Fine. p. 59	No qualifying sequence recorded
21 August 1821	Main register: Fine. p. 59	No qualifying sequence recorded
22 August 1821	Main register: Fine. p. 59	No qualifying sequence recorded
23 August 1821	Main register: Fine. p. 59	No qualifying sequence recorded
24 August 1821	Main register: Fine. p. 59	No qualifying sequence recorded
25 August 1821	Main register: Fine. p. 59	No qualifying sequence recorded
26 August 1821	Main register: Cloudy. p. 59	No qualifying sequence recorded
27 August 1821	Main register: Cloudy. p. 59	No qualifying sequence recorded
28 August 1821	Main register: Rainy. p. 59	No qualifying sequence recorded
29 August 1821	Main register: Ditto. p. 59	No qualifying sequence recorded
30 August 1821	Main register: Fine. p. 59	No qualifying sequence recorded
31 August 1821	Main register: Drizzling rain. p. 59 Tottenham: Some flashes of lightning in the evening. p. 59	No qualifying sequence recorded
1 September 1821	Main register: Rainy: a very heavy shower between five and 6, p. m. p. 60	No qualifying sequence recorded
2 September 1821	Main register: Cloudy and fine at intervals. p. 60	No qualifying sequence recorded
3 September 1821	Main register: Cloudy and fine at intervals. p. 60	No qualifying sequence recorded
4 September 1821	Main register: Fine: showery. p. 60	No qualifying sequence recorded
5 September 1821	Main register: Fine. p. 60	No qualifying sequence recorded
6 September 1821	Main register: Fine: frequent lightning during the night, from half-past twelve to five. p. 60	No qualifying sequence recorded
7 September 1821	Main register: Fine. p. 60	No qualifying sequence recorded
8 September 1821	Main register: Fine: cloudy. p. 60	No qualifying sequence recorded
9 September 1821	Main register: Fine, with showers: very wet evening. p. 60	No qualifying sequence recorded
10 September 1821	Main register: Some thunder about noon: heavy showers: lunar halo. p. 60	No qualifying sequence recorded
11 September 1821	Main register: Cloudy: fine. p. 60	No qualifying sequence recorded
12 September 1821	Main register: Showery morning: cloudy. p. 60	No qualifying sequence recorded
13 September 1821	Main register: Cloudy: rainy night. p. 60	No qualifying sequence recorded
14 September 1821	Main register: Drizzling: a Stratus on the marshes at night. p. 60	No qualifying sequence recorded
15 September 1821	Main register: Foggy morning: cloudy. p. 61	No qualifying sequence recorded
16 September 1821	Main register: Gloomy morning: a shower in the evening. p. 61	No qualifying sequence recorded
17 September 1821	Main register: Cloudy: fine. p. 61	No qualifying sequence recorded
18 September 1821	Main register: Fine. p. 61	No qualifying sequence recorded
19 September 1821	Main register: Fine. p. 61	No qualifying sequence recorded
20 September 1821	Main register: Cloudy, with small rain. p. 61	No qualifying sequence recorded
21 September 1821	Main register: Overcast: began to rain about 8 p. m. and continued till two next morning: a heavy thunder-storm during the night. p. 61	No qualifying sequence recorded
22 September 1821	Main register: Cloudy. p. 61	No qualifying sequence recorded
23 September 1821	Main register: Gloomy. p. 61	No qualifying sequence recorded
24 September 1821	Main register: Overcast. p. 61	No qualifying sequence recorded
25 September 1821	Main register: Overcast. p. 61	No qualifying sequence recorded
26 September 1821	Main register: Showery. p. 61	No qualifying sequence recorded
27 September 1821	Main register: Cloudy. p. 61	No qualifying sequence recorded
28 September 1821	Main register: Fine: rainy night. p. 61	No qualifying sequence recorded
29 September 1821	Main register: Cloudy: showers. p. 61	No qualifying sequence recorded
30 September 1821	Main register: Cloudy: fine. p. 61	No qualifying sequence recorded
1 October 1821	Main register: Fine: windy. p. 62 Tottenham: Cloudy, p. m. very strong wind. p. 63	No qualifying sequence recorded
2 October 1821	Main register: Fine. p. 62 Tottenham: Remarkably fine: brilliant sunset. p. 63	No qualifying sequence recorded
3 October 1821	Main register: Cloudy. p. 62	No qualifying sequence recorded
4 October 1821	Main register: Very rainy day: stormy night. p. 62	No qualifying sequence recorded
5 October 1821	Main register: Fine. p. 62	No qualifying sequence recorded
6 October 1821	Main register: Fine. p. 62	No qualifying sequence recorded
7 October 1821	Main register: Fine. p. 62 Tottenham: Fine morning: cloudy, with a few drops, p. m. p. 63	No qualifying sequence recorded
8 October 1821	Main register: Rainy morning: a Stratus on the marshes at night. p. 62	No qualifying sequence recorded
9 October 1821	Main register: Foggy morning: fine: lunar corona at night. p. 62	No qualifying sequence recorded
10 October 1821	Main register: Fine. p. 62 Tottenham: Foggy morning. p. 63	No qualifying sequence recorded
11 October 1821	Main register: Cloudy. p. 62	No qualifying sequence recorded
12 October 1821	Main register: Fine. p. 62 Tottenham: Stratus. p. 63	No qualifying sequence recorded
13 October 1821	Main register: Fine. p. 62	No qualifying sequence recorded
14 October 1821	Main register: Fine. p. 62	No qualifying sequence recorded
15 October 1821	Main register: Morning rainy: afternoon fine. p. 62	No qualifying sequence recorded
16 October 1821	Main register: Fine: Stratus at night. p. 62 Tottenham: Hoar frost. p. 63	No qualifying sequence recorded
17 October 1821	Main register: Fine: fog at night. p. 62	No qualifying sequence recorded
18 October 1821	Main register: Cloudy. p. 62	No qualifying sequence recorded
19 October 1821	Main register: Cloudy. p. 62	No qualifying sequence recorded
20 October 1821	Main register: Rainy. p. 62	No qualifying sequence recorded
21 October 1821	Main register: Fine day: rainy night. p. 62	No qualifying sequence recorded
22 October 1821	Main register: Cloudy: fine. p. 62	No qualifying sequence recorded
23 October 1821	Main register: Rainy. p. 62 Tottenham: A considerable number of swallows and martins seen: very wet, p. m. p. 63	No qualifying sequence recorded
24 October 1821	Main register: Cloudy. p. 62 Tottenham: About 3, p. m. a heavy storm of hail and rain: fine evening—a brilliant meteor passed to the NW. p. 63	Strict candidate
25 October 1821	Main register: Cloudy: foggy. p. 62	No qualifying sequence recorded
26 October 1821	Main register: Cloudy. p. 62	No qualifying sequence recorded
27 October 1821	Main register: Cloudy. p. 62	No qualifying sequence recorded
28 October 1821	Main register: Foggy: drizzling: night clear: a Stratus on the marshes. p. 62	No qualifying sequence recorded
29 October 1821	Main register: Foggy. p. 62	No qualifying sequence recorded
30 October 1821	Main register: Fine: a Stratus at night. p. 62	No qualifying sequence recorded
31 October 1821	Main register: Fine. p. 63	No qualifying sequence recorded
1 November 1821	Main register: Cloudy. p. 64	No qualifying sequence recorded
2 November 1821	Main register: Cloudy. p. 64	No qualifying sequence recorded
3 November 1821	Main register: Rainy: very stormy night: the wind blowing quite a gale. p. 64	No qualifying sequence recorded
2 July 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 86 Tottenham: Fine: loose clouds moving fast in the sky, evening, with rather brisk wind. p. 86	No qualifying sequence recorded
3 July 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 86 Tottenham: Cloudy: cool a. m.: fine day: overcast p. m. with Cirrus and Cumulus. p. 87	No qualifying sequence recorded
4 July 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 86 Tottenham: A few drops of rain evening: very close night: lightning in the S, about 1 a. m. with showers of rain. p. 87	No qualifying sequence recorded
5 July 1822	Main register: A thunder-storm about 2 a. m.: a very heavy shower about half-past 10: the rain continued till about 2 p. m. with very frequent thunder at a distance. p. 86 Tottenham: Cloudy: heavy thunder-storm from the W, about 11 a. m.: showers p. m. p. 87	No qualifying sequence recorded
6 July 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 86	No qualifying sequence recorded
7 July 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 86	No qualifying sequence recorded
8 July 1822	Main register: Cloudy. p. 86	No qualifying sequence recorded
9 July 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 86	No qualifying sequence recorded
10 July 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 86	No qualifying sequence recorded
11 July 1822	Main register: Showery. p. 86 Tottenham: Showery: heavy rain evening. p. 87	No qualifying sequence recorded
12 July 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 86 Tottenham: Windy: heavy clouds evening. p. 87	No qualifying sequence recorded
13 July 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 86 Tottenham: Fresh breeze. p. 87	No qualifying sequence recorded
14 July 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 86	No qualifying sequence recorded
15 July 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 86 Tottenham: Fine day: heavy clouds, with a few drops, evening. p. 87	No qualifying sequence recorded
16 July 1822	Main register: Fine: night rainy. p. 86 Tottenham: Heavy rain evening and night. p. 87	No qualifying sequence recorded
17 July 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 86 Tottenham: Driving rain at intervals a. m.: very fine evening. p. 87	Weaker match
18 July 1822	Main register: Fine: night rainy, with thunder. p. 86 Tottenham: Cloudy evening: rain after dark. p. 87	No qualifying sequence recorded
19 July 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 86 Tottenham: Two loud claps of thunder about half-past four a. m. with heavy rain: showery till about nine. p. 87	No qualifying sequence recorded
20 July 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 86 Tottenham: Very heavy showers: fine evening. p. 87	Strict candidate
21 July 1822	Main register: Showery. p. 86 Tottenham: Very showery. p. 87	No qualifying sequence recorded
22 July 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 86	No qualifying sequence recorded
23 July 1822	Main register: Showery. p. 86 Tottenham: Driving showers p. m.: rain in the night. p. 87	No qualifying sequence recorded
24 July 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 86 Tottenham: Very windy p. m. p. 87	No qualifying sequence recorded
25 July 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 86 Tottenham: Rather rainy a. m. p. 87	No qualifying sequence recorded
26 July 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 86 Tottenham: Shower in the middle of the day. p. 87	No qualifying sequence recorded
27 July 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 86	No qualifying sequence recorded
28 July 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 86 Tottenham: Very showery day. p. 87	No qualifying sequence recorded
29 July 1822	Main register: Showery: some thunder. p. 86 Tottenham: Heavy clouds p. m.: showers evening. p. 87	No qualifying sequence recorded
30 July 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 86 Tottenham: Showers. p. 87	No qualifying sequence recorded
31 July 1822	Main register: Showery. p. 86 Tottenham: Showers. p. 87	No qualifying sequence recorded
1 August 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 88 Tottenham: Showers part of the day. p. 88	No qualifying sequence recorded
2 August 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 88 Tottenham: Very heavy shower p. m. p. 88	No qualifying sequence recorded
3 August 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 88	No qualifying sequence recorded
4 August 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 88	No qualifying sequence recorded
5 August 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 88 Tottenham: Shower p. m. p. 88	No qualifying sequence recorded
6 August 1822	Main register: Cloudy and fine. p. 88	No qualifying sequence recorded
7 August 1822	Main register: Cloudy and fine. p. 88	No qualifying sequence recorded
8 August 1822	Main register: Cloudy and fine. p. 88 Tottenham: Fine, except a slight shower about 10 a. m. Several peals of distant thunder, the lightning visible at times in the W, passing to N and NE, about 5 p. m. p. 88	No qualifying sequence recorded
9 August 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 88	No qualifying sequence recorded
10 August 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 88	No qualifying sequence recorded
11 August 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 88	No qualifying sequence recorded
12 August 1822	Main register: Cloudy morning: fine afternoon. p. 88	No qualifying sequence recorded
13 August 1822	Main register: Drizzling morning: very fine afternoon. p. 88 Tottenham: Windy: driving showers a. m. p. 89	No qualifying sequence recorded
14 August 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 88 Tottenham: Windy a. m. p. 89	No qualifying sequence recorded
15 August 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 88	No qualifying sequence recorded
16 August 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 88	No qualifying sequence recorded
17 August 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 88	No qualifying sequence recorded
18 August 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 88	No qualifying sequence recorded
19 August 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 88	No qualifying sequence recorded
20 August 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 88	No qualifying sequence recorded
21 August 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 88 Tottenham: Very fine day, with a breeze a. m.: thunder-clouds. p. 89	No qualifying sequence recorded
22 August 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 88 Tottenham: A little rain in the night: very fine day: a little lightning p. m. in the NE. p. 89	No qualifying sequence recorded
23 August 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 88	No qualifying sequence recorded
24 August 1822	Main register: Fine day: night rainy. p. 88 Tottenham: Cloudy most of the day: began to rain at dark, and rained heavily about 11 p. m. p. 89	No qualifying sequence recorded
25 August 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 88 Tottenham: Showery day. p. 89	No qualifying sequence recorded
26 August 1822	Main register: Showers. p. 88 Tottenham: Shower, p. m. p. 89	No qualifying sequence recorded
27 August 1822	Main register: A thunder-storm about noon: showery. p. 88 Tottenham: Showery through the day: a very dark cloud p. m. followed by a thunder-shower. p. 89	No qualifying sequence recorded
28 August 1822	Main register: Showery. p. 88 Tottenham: Foggy a. m.: heavy showers p. m. p. 89	No qualifying sequence recorded
29 August 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 88 Tottenham: Showery, windy day. p. 89	No qualifying sequence recorded
30 August 1822	Main register: Fine: showers in the evening. p. 88 Tottenham: Showery. p. 89	No qualifying sequence recorded
31 August 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 88	No qualifying sequence recorded
1 September 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 90	No qualifying sequence recorded
2 September 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 90	No qualifying sequence recorded
3 September 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 90	No qualifying sequence recorded
4 September 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 90	No qualifying sequence recorded
5 September 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 90	No qualifying sequence recorded
6 September 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 90	No qualifying sequence recorded
7 September 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 90	No qualifying sequence recorded
8 September 1822	Main register: Cloudy: windy. p. 90	No qualifying sequence recorded
9 September 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 90	No qualifying sequence recorded
10 September 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 90	No qualifying sequence recorded
11 September 1822	Main register: Cloudy: a little rain in the evening. p. 90	No qualifying sequence recorded
12 September 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 90	No qualifying sequence recorded
13 September 1822	Main register: Cloudy and fine. p. 90	No qualifying sequence recorded
14 September 1822	Main register: Cloudy. p. 90	No qualifying sequence recorded
15 September 1822	Main register: Cloudy: windy. p. 90	No qualifying sequence recorded
16 September 1822	Main register: Overcast. p. 90	No qualifying sequence recorded
17 September 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 90	No qualifying sequence recorded
18 September 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 90	No qualifying sequence recorded
19 September 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 90	No qualifying sequence recorded
20 September 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 90	No qualifying sequence recorded
21 September 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 90	No qualifying sequence recorded
22 September 1822	Main register: Cloudy: windy: swallows begin to congregate. p. 90	No qualifying sequence recorded
23 September 1822	Main register: Cloudy: rainy. p. 90	No qualifying sequence recorded
24 September 1822	Main register: Rainy. p. 90	No qualifying sequence recorded
25 September 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 90	No qualifying sequence recorded
26 September 1822	Main register: Cloudy: fine. p. 90	No qualifying sequence recorded
27 September 1822	Main register: Bleak. p. 90	No qualifying sequence recorded
28 September 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 90	No qualifying sequence recorded
29 September 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 90	No qualifying sequence recorded
30 September 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 90	No qualifying sequence recorded
1 October 1822	Main register: Fine. p. 94	No qualifying sequence recorded
2 October 1822	Main register: Rainy. p. 94 Tottenham: Damp and cloudy: rain about nine, and again p. m. p. 95	No qualifying sequence recorded
3 October 1822	Main register: Cloudy and fine. p. 94 Tottenham: Very wet forenoon: fine p. m. p. 95	No qualifying sequence recorded
4 October 1822	Main register: Foggy morning: very frequent lightning in the evening: some thunder: night stormy. p. 94 Main register: Cloudy. p. 94 Tottenham: Very misty, damp, and close: very vivid lightning in the E, for about half an hour evening: some showers afterwards. p. 95	No qualifying sequence recorded
5 October 1822	Tottenham: Fine day: rain at night. p. 95 Page 94 prints 4 twice and omits 5; second 4 not silently reassigned. Tottenham has a dated 5 entry.	Date ambiguous
6 October 1822	Main register: Cloudy: windy. p. 94	No qualifying sequence recorded
7 October 1822	Main register: Cloudy. p. 94 Tottenham: Squalls of wind and rain early. p. 95	No qualifying sequence recorded

Step 3 · Read the witnesses

The painter watched weather change

Constable’s letters put the exercise back into his working life. On the day before the October candidate he wrote from Hampstead about learning to paint skies. The following year he described the scale of that work. These are contemporary accounts of his practice, transmitted through Leslie’s published edition; neither identifies this sheet.

“I have done a good deal of skying, for I am determined to conquer all difficulties, and that among the rest.”
Constable to John Fisher, Hampstead, 23 October 1821; Leslie, Life and Letters (1896), p. 103.

“I have made about fifty careful studies of skies, tolerably large to be careful.”
Constable to John Fisher, Hampstead, 7 October 1822; Leslie (1896), p. 114.

Dated sketches distinguish a passing storm from an approaching one

The inspected storm sketches do not coincide with the shortlisted evenings. They do, however, test the rule against Constable’s own weather language. A bright noon after thunder and an evening before a storm describe different sequences. Published inscriptions are quoted as transmitted; the original versos have not been inspected.

Dated comparisons from the same Hampstead seasons
Sketch	What it tests	Howard on that date
10 September 1821 Cloud Study with Tree Tops and Building	Very sultry after a heavey [sic] shower with thunder. Constable describes bright weather after thunder at noon. Howard records noon thunder and heavy showers, but no fine evening. Agreement about the storm does not pass the sunset rule.	Main register: Some thunder about noon: heavy showers: lunar halo. p. 60
2 July 1822 Hampstead thunder-squall sketch	Rhyne indexes a dated thunder-squall sketch. Howard's main note is Fine; Tottenham describes a fine evening with brisk wind. The difference is retained: neither register places a storm at Hampstead.	Main register: Fine. p. 86 Tottenham: Fine: loose clouds moving fast in the sky, evening, with rather brisk wind. p. 86
31 July 1822 A view at Hampstead: evening	The Australian catalogue dates two V&A evening sketches to this day and reads an approaching storm. Howard records showers, without later clearing. These are different works from NGA 1998.20.1.	Main register: Showery. p. 86 Tottenham: Showers. p. 87
6 September 1822 A Study of Clouds, 12–1 o'clock	fresh and bright between showers The inscription goes on to describe a fine, sunny afternoon. Howard calls the day Fine; it supplies neither heavy rain nor an evening transition. This is a shower-to-fine comparison, not a strict storm candidate.	Main register: Fine. p. 90

A London newspaper makes the storm tangible

“the metropolis was visited by a violent thunder-storm, accompanied by heavy rain.”
Public Ledger, 9 July 1822, reporting 5 July; reprinted by Howard, vol. III (1833), p. 87. Original newspaper issue not inspected.

This report concerns the morning of 5 July 1822, not the shortlisted 20 July evening. Howard reprints its account of flooding and damage around Green Park and Pimlico. It gives a contemporary city-scale witness to that season’s storms; it supplies no observation at Hampstead and no link to the NGA painting. Its survival here is through Howard, not an independently inspected newspaper issue.

What Constable chose

Here the clouds occupy the whole sheet: the play of dark mass, blue opening and warm lower light becomes the subject. The visible sweeping strokes give that transition a physical pace. Conisbee describes rapid work with wet paint brushed into wet paint; Fondation Custodia identifies a fingerprint among the clouds. These are choices and traces of making. They do not establish that he added a storm or repainted observed weather.

“The sky is the source of light in nature, and governs everything;”
Constable to John Fisher, Hampstead, 23 October 1821; Leslie (1896), p. 104.

That statement, in the same October letter, explains why the transition matters to a painter: a change in sky reorganizes the light. It is evidence of his thinking about composition, not a technical report on this work.

Step 4 · Then and now

The same calendar, a different temperature context

Both screened intervals were cooler in the Central England Temperature series than the 1991–2020 averages for exactly the same calendar dates. The comparison concerns the regional background in which these Hampstead seasons fell. It does not measure the temperature in the painting.

HadCET regional mean temperature, °C · Met Office Hadley Centre
Screened interval	Days	Then	Same dates, 1991–2020	Then minus reference
6 July–3 November 1821	121	14.1	14.4	−0.3
2 July–7 October 1822	98	14.3	15.6	−1.3

Each historical value averages all daily means in its stated interval. Its reference averages the same dates in every year from 1991 through 2020; all those intervals are complete. The two rows use different calendar windows, so they should each be read against their own reference. Data; series documentation. HadCET is a regional series, not a Hampstead thermometer; it is not combined with Howard’s stations. Temperature does not tell us whether evening clearings became more or less common. Two historical seasons do not establish a climate trend.

What the comparison establishes

The picture makes a testable proposition about a sequence: heavy weather giving way to evening light. Howard preserves examples of that sequence during Constable’s Hampstead seasons, and the dated sketches show why its order matters. The result is a short, inspectable set of environmental possibilities. The painting remains evidence of how Constable made that transition visible.

Limits and the next useful evidence

The shortlist tests compatibility, not identity. No date, month, storm track or exact viewpoint is assigned to NGA 1998.20.1.
Tottenham is not Hampstead. Fine evening does not specify cloud amount, colour or the instant of sunset.
The dated sources bound search intervals, not continuous presence. This is a conservative screen of parts of the seasons, not an exhaustive catalogue of every cloud study or every possible evening.
A missing evening description cannot exclude a date. The count is sensitive to what the observer chose to write.
No verified conservation evidence establishes a changed sky. A recovered annotation, object-linked letter or technical examination would improve the attribution of a weather event; a closer-looking storm alone would not.

Compare Tree at Right, with an inscribed morning

Sources

Every source on this page

Each file was downloaded and given a fingerprint (its sha256). The page is rebuilt from these files and will not build if a fingerprint changes, so every number above comes from them rather than being typed in.

National Gallery of Art, 1998.20.1; Philip Conisbee (2000), captured web textMuseum text; brief quotation and attributed paraphrase · retrieved 7 October 2026sha256 d2c49763aafbe6c127ceb7b4ac05bbd31a4049fbde910fbae70e3ad32454e9ae
Fondation Custodia, True to Nature, catalogue entry 112Museum text; attributed paraphrase · retrieved 7 October 2026sha256 cd23da8adac28cfdfa0842362108e9452168066a327fc2407b716c2ca50d184e
Met Office HadCET daily mean temperature; Parker, Legg & Folland (1992)Open Government Licence; Met Office Hadley Centre · retrieved 30 September 2026sha256 c6948508f8d4b1cff2b302c83d6506244c804abc2d088a743ef8ab6c630184cc
Met Office HadCET regional series documentationCrown copyright; attributed description · retrieved 7 October 2026sha256 aa659d386a08aea95919142ddc082bc25d57e23cdaabcd2d9074f396740e65e0
Met Office HadCET terms and requested citationOpen Government Licence · retrieved 7 October 2026sha256 1feded3fa5d97b621aa234f3f6ec21be1cfbf0629b3d7da321593833420c4b6b
National Gallery of Art open-access image policy, captured web textEligible object images CC0 · retrieved 7 October 2026sha256 03aa4c5b30788f765891d3d53bc743f00fa02fe9bff9139aa7e22619a64181ef
Courtesy National Gallery of Art, Washington, 1998.20.1CC0 / public domain · retrieved 7 October 2026sha256 10f5f6c6b2b2930dcc211fa5ad62b73371d924d4883f889a6d1afbb1fe4e5321
Howard, vol. III (1833), printed p. 56Public domain: Howard 1833 / Leslie 1896 · retrieved 8 October 2026sha256 ffc7345340ac2b04b0eef79d944f933b6dbbeea1f7b069fcd732e96867171d80
Howard, vol. III (1833), printed p. 57Public domain: Howard 1833 / Leslie 1896 · retrieved 8 October 2026sha256 a2edf4a500c4d2873b2e29a33124a8dd85bc7ca9fc5cfb107b9f42cbd6ce2bcb
Howard, vol. III (1833), printed p. 58Public domain: Howard 1833 / Leslie 1896 · retrieved 8 October 2026sha256 710e8b54a46415b3d5d25851b464c142191a2b9dbe2fc841b0d67f9b27a9fda6
Howard, vol. III (1833), printed p. 59Public domain: Howard 1833 / Leslie 1896 · retrieved 8 October 2026sha256 933f54f9f56db56d5a4c98e400686d683635c00fd076e1c5de34194dc4a37ac2
Howard, vol. III (1833), printed p. 60Public domain: Howard 1833 / Leslie 1896 · retrieved 8 October 2026sha256 94f31331517db9c42e73fd7b4109969587359f18c3d1be2826f237907aa67ad3
Howard, vol. III (1833), printed p. 61Public domain: Howard 1833 / Leslie 1896 · retrieved 8 October 2026sha256 e9a7f9ece12f5d7b8a64c96c6f2afb72a9cc656b3bde1c89b8358a487667169d
Howard, vol. III (1833), printed p. 62Public domain: Howard 1833 / Leslie 1896 · retrieved 8 October 2026sha256 e4cc862c6251a6e795ab11685f8d49364ac87ff54f37df2537073649e93153bd
Howard, vol. III (1833), printed p. 63Public domain: Howard 1833 / Leslie 1896 · retrieved 8 October 2026sha256 458eda277f63d62e98cf2ecc753b57b5d245ba2ddd74d2f899f601c2ac00dcee
Howard, vol. III (1833), printed p. 64Public domain: Howard 1833 / Leslie 1896 · retrieved 8 October 2026sha256 8cb68041f89d38726fbd281e256ba95014dc8185198b08888b68b852acc0478d
Howard, vol. III (1833), printed p. 86Public domain: Howard 1833 / Leslie 1896 · retrieved 8 October 2026sha256 904afaae5b1cdda62b36c43a00588d4efa053a7d5724d2a929f05e2e5bd52728
Howard, vol. III (1833), printed p. 87Public domain: Howard 1833 / Leslie 1896 · retrieved 8 October 2026sha256 deee17bb2724592ff3081a01cf2dcef60b23facd83e1425155d4255c02a95ee7
Howard, vol. III (1833), printed p. 88Public domain: Howard 1833 / Leslie 1896 · retrieved 8 October 2026sha256 e740a75c45c8741956cb903136cfa96ce04f195fbe200500c35118ff610c0ffa
Howard, vol. III (1833), printed p. 89Public domain: Howard 1833 / Leslie 1896 · retrieved 8 October 2026sha256 4fc79e4ddbe0cae9b2166539c9a3cfbb225ab1fe2fd1299134136b94cb93fc4a
Howard, vol. III (1833), printed p. 90Public domain: Howard 1833 / Leslie 1896 · retrieved 8 October 2026sha256 f9183ae01d30812575739116aee074e43d263044708017ea01276965d7b67d19
C. R. Leslie, Life and Letters of John Constable (1896), full OCRPublic domain: Howard 1833 / Leslie 1896 · retrieved 8 October 2026sha256 0fe17c4dcf25c431c8d9c89c1ffb7adb102a1137ae9cac433ced4cdf6b9df6a1
Howard, vol. III (1833), printed p. 94Public domain; Howard 1833 · retrieved 8 October 2026sha256 d43226ae0ce481957046bc4b680ee7225ec9e8bbb03269561ecccdb11c858b34
Howard, vol. III (1833), printed p. 95Public domain; Howard 1833 · retrieved 8 October 2026sha256 b9f57ea84f314d9896231cc6a86f0d44d22c8cf994a1ef487037dd072ef4d8ab
C. R. Leslie, Life and Letters of John Constable (1896), printed p. 103Public domain; Leslie 1896 · retrieved 8 October 2026sha256 9745adbfc19502cff00848c7284854b22fc64c3994471c17672bec7a541fe3ab
C. R. Leslie, Life and Letters of John Constable (1896), printed p. 104Public domain; Leslie 1896 · retrieved 8 October 2026sha256 e7706fa6d6609facd0641c925c8c3c11fe065bb2857b37acfdf87b68d57536e1
C. R. Leslie, Life and Letters of John Constable (1896), printed p. 114Public domain; Leslie 1896 · retrieved 8 October 2026sha256 d6c528558655675d19b243ba38872e3d4d0606018e27df6afbe794947b57730b
Nephos scan-checked weather-note transcriptionCC BY 4.0; underlying text public domain · retrieved 8 October 2026sha256 52277256c2e35472889ec7b70ccdb8e28d69f7f1713690fd021181757141eb96
Nephos dated-source index, witnesses and screening ruleCC BY 4.0; source quotations retain their original rights · retrieved 8 October 2026sha256 13a56051e74b4cc3418696bbb1e2738ef1e105f392ba31ed86af982da24cf473
Charles S. Rhyne, John Constable: Toward a Complete Chronology; selected web extractsModern scholarship; factual extraction and short attributed paraphrase · retrieved 8 October 2026sha256 4346897bf67743708c90f5c4bbdc8026dd5f1156d6e9fea2db2a5a304d14a432
Libson & Yarker (2020), Storm Clouds over Hampstead, inscription of 10 September 1821; web extractInscription public domain; modern catalogue text copyright · retrieved 8 October 2026sha256 34395abd8f185a975dfd88dcb7de4273b941a712dd4633d37bcf879ae68c7dac
National Gallery of Australia (2006), A view at Hampstead: evening, 31 July 1822Museum text; attributed paraphrase; no image reuse · retrieved 8 October 2026sha256 fb5aa6005b58e7c38ef3fc08f3145443eefef1e2bda9615ccac9e06e2bae40b3
Christie’s, A Study of Clouds, inscription dated 6 September 1822Inscription public domain; catalogue text copyright; no image reuse · retrieved 8 October 2026sha256 780da114d60b1962b867017d4478fc8a29f17cbc2ff68f04cf385bba49128b58
Public Ledger, 9 July 1822, reprinted by Howard p. 87; scan-checked excerptPublic domain; transcription CC BY 4.0 · retrieved 8 October 2026sha256 0967cb0fb55752f388ac05fe2efadc38fc4273e05404ef91d7b65437dd629f59
Cached copy of the existing NGA reproduction, 1998.20.1CC0 / public domain; full composition, no image edits · retrieved 8 October 2026sha256 b83c9dbb377edd77caf1ab6804e07c3308e8e0b1242b953833eedbf7ddaf2a93

The numbers on this page, as JSON The method card, as JSON

Cloud Study: Stormy Sunset

What is written

Records of those days

Each claim tested

Verdict

Dated sketches distinguish a passing storm from an approaching one

A London newspaper makes the storm tangible

What Constable chose

What the comparison establishes