Nephosthe weather behind the paintings
Thomas Cole, View on the Catskill—Early Autumn: a golden valley with trees, a stream and a figure, the Catskill Mountains behind.
The Metropolitan Museum of Art, 95.13.3. Public domain.

A study against the weather record

Thomas Cole

View on the Catskill—Early Autumn

1836–37 · The Metropolitan Museum of Art, 95.13.3

Cole painted “early autumn” in the winter of 1836–37. What had the autumn just been like?

16mornings at or below freezing in October 1836 at Watervliet, on the Hudson: the most of any October from 1826 to 1840.

“Harsh and cruel climate” partially agreesSeason painted unknown

The recordsThe painting at the Met

The Nephos method

How this study was read

The method in full
  1. What is written

    Painted in the studio at Catskill in the winter of 1836–37, from memory and earlier drawings, of a valley whose woods had been felled that spring.

  2. Records of those days

    • Watervliet Arsenal registerThermometer at 7 a.m., 2 p.m. and 9 p.m. and daily rain, kept by the Army on the Hudson, 56 km up-river from Cole’s house. Compared only with its own years 1826–1840, read at the same hours.
    • Hudson Correctional Facility, 1991–2020Today’s median first frost, 6 km from Cole’s house across the river: 18 October.

    Not found or not yet searched

    • No weather observer worked at Catskill in 1836.
    • The New York academies’ registers for 1836 survive only as half-month means in print; their daily sheets were not read.
    • Cole wrote nothing about the weather of autumn 1836 that has been found.
  3. Each claim tested

    • “Early Autumn”, the season in the title. The canvas was painted in winter from memory, of the valley before its woods were cut in spring 1836; it does not show a particular autumn, so no season’s record can be tested against it.
    • “the banks were in flames of splendour”, Cole’s biographer on the Hudson in late October 1836. No one recorded the leaves. By 29 October Watervliet had had 14 mornings at or below freezing, the coldest October of 1826–1840.
    • “What a harsh and cruel climate!”, Cole on 6 October 1837, a year after the painting season. At Watervliet the 7 a.m. reading fell from 58 °F on 4 October 1837 to 28 °F on 5 October, the autumn’s first freezing morning, the day before he wrote.
  4. Verdict

    Cole painted a golden early autumn in the winter after the coldest of the 15 complete Octobers compared at Watervliet, 1826–1840, and of a valley that no longer looked like that.

    • Unknown“Early Autumn” A remembered view, not a dated one; no autumn can be matched to it.
    • Partially agrees“a harsh and cruel climate” A 30 °F drop to the first hard frost, the day before he wrote, 56 km up-river; “harsh and cruel” is his judgment.
    • Unknown“flames of splendour” A biographer’s account written in 1853; leaves were not recorded.

What this cannot tell you. Watervliet is 56 km from Catskill, beside the Hudson. The 1836 values are readings at fixed hours, not daily highs and lows, and are compared only with the same station’s own years. The painting is a view from memory; the records describe the autumn around its making, not the scene it shows.

Step 2 · Records of those days

Sixty-one days at Watervliet

No weather observer worked at Catskill in 1836. The nearest daily record was kept by the Army at Watervliet Arsenal, on the Hudson 56 km up-river from Cole’s house: a thermometer read at 7 a.m., 2 p.m. and 9 p.m., and a rain gauge. These are the last two months of the autumn Cole had just lived through when he sat down that winter to paint “early autumn”.

Morning and afternoon thermometer at Watervliet Arsenal, 1 September to 31 October 1836Dots are the 7 a.m. readings, the line the 2 p.m. readings. 16 October mornings were at or below freezing, the first on 9 October.20406080°F32 °F, freezingSeptember 18361 September 1836: 64 °F at 7 a.m., 67 °F at 2 p.m.2 September 1836: 46 °F at 7 a.m., 54 °F at 2 p.m.3 September 1836: 55 °F at 7 a.m., 66 °F at 2 p.m.4 September 1836: 60 °F at 7 a.m., 78 °F at 2 p.m.5 September 1836: 64 °F at 7 a.m., 67 °F at 2 p.m.6 September 1836: 42 °F at 7 a.m., 60 °F at 2 p.m.7 September 1836: 43 °F at 7 a.m., 66 °F at 2 p.m.8 September 1836: 42 °F at 7 a.m., 70 °F at 2 p.m.9 September 1836: 57 °F at 7 a.m., 82 °F at 2 p.m.10 September 1836: 48 °F at 7 a.m., 56 °F at 2 p.m.11 September 1836: 54 °F at 7 a.m., 70 °F at 2 p.m.12 September 1836: 62 °F at 7 a.m., 78 °F at 2 p.m.13 September 1836: 67 °F at 7 a.m., 82 °F at 2 p.m.14 September 1836: 72 °F at 7 a.m., 84 °F at 2 p.m.15 September 1836: 62 °F at 7 a.m., 84 °F at 2 p.m.16 September 1836: 54 °F at 7 a.m., 75 °F at 2 p.m.17 September 1836: 64 °F at 7 a.m., 68 °F at 2 p.m.18 September 1836: 67 °F at 7 a.m., 78 °F at 2 p.m.19 September 1836: 70 °F at 7 a.m., 88 °F at 2 p.m.20 September 1836: 73 °F at 7 a.m., 80 °F at 2 p.m.21 September 1836: 54 °F at 7 a.m., 76 °F at 2 p.m.22 September 1836: 51 °F at 7 a.m., 74 °F at 2 p.m.23 September 1836: 63 °F at 7 a.m., 80 °F at 2 p.m.24 September 1836: 64 °F at 7 a.m., 78 °F at 2 p.m.25 September 1836: 54 °F at 7 a.m., 61 °F at 2 p.m.26 September 1836: 57 °F at 7 a.m., 62 °F at 2 p.m.27 September 1836: 51 °F at 7 a.m., 67 °F at 2 p.m.28 September 1836: 40 °F at 7 a.m., 51 °F at 2 p.m.29 September 1836: 40 °F at 7 a.m., 56 °F at 2 p.m.30 September 1836: 36 °F at 7 a.m., 61 °F at 2 p.m.October 18361 October 1836: 49 °F at 7 a.m., 66 °F at 2 p.m.2 October 1836: 60 °F at 7 a.m., 71 °F at 2 p.m.3 October 1836: 38 °F at 7 a.m., 58 °F at 2 p.m.4 October 1836: 44 °F at 7 a.m., 60 °F at 2 p.m.5 October 1836: 38 °F at 7 a.m., 42 °F at 2 p.m.6 October 1836: 38 °F at 7 a.m., 46 °F at 2 p.m.7 October 1836: 42 °F at 7 a.m., 56 °F at 2 p.m.8 October 1836: 41 °F at 7 a.m., 58 °F at 2 p.m.9 October 1836: 31 °F at 7 a.m., 56 °F at 2 p.m.10 October 1836: 26 °F at 7 a.m., 48 °F at 2 p.m.11 October 1836: 24 °F at 7 a.m., 50 °F at 2 p.m.12 October 1836: 32 °F at 7 a.m., 37 °F at 2 p.m.13 October 1836: 32 °F at 7 a.m., 52 °F at 2 p.m.14 October 1836: 49 °F at 7 a.m., 58 °F at 2 p.m.15 October 1836: 43 °F at 7 a.m., 56 °F at 2 p.m.16 October 1836: 30 °F at 7 a.m., 52 °F at 2 p.m.17 October 1836: 35 °F at 7 a.m., 54 °F at 2 p.m.18 October 1836: 36 °F at 7 a.m., 48 °F at 2 p.m.19 October 1836: 32 °F at 7 a.m., 52 °F at 2 p.m.20 October 1836: 62 °F at 7 a.m., 44 °F at 2 p.m.21 October 1836: 34 °F at 7 a.m., 40 °F at 2 p.m.22 October 1836: 28 °F at 7 a.m., 48 °F at 2 p.m.23 October 1836: 32 °F at 7 a.m., 58 °F at 2 p.m.24 October 1836: 44 °F at 7 a.m., 65 °F at 2 p.m.25 October 1836: 28 °F at 7 a.m., 38 °F at 2 p.m.26 October 1836: 22 °F at 7 a.m., 36 °F at 2 p.m.27 October 1836: 24 °F at 7 a.m., 48 °F at 2 p.m.28 October 1836: 19 °F at 7 a.m., 50 °F at 2 p.m.29 October 1836: 32 °F at 7 a.m., 42 °F at 2 p.m.30 October 1836: 32 °F at 7 a.m., 36 °F at 2 p.m.31 October 1836: 16 °F at 7 a.m., 39 °F at 2 p.m.12 October: 1.25 in of rain or snow, at 32 to 37 °F
Watervliet Arsenal register, keyed by NOAA’s Climate Database Modernization Program and checked by the Midwestern Regional Climate Center. Dots: 7 a.m.; red dots are at or below freezing. Line: 2 p.m. The kind of precipitation was not written down.
16
October mornings at or below freezing; no other October of 1826–1840 had more than 10
41.9
°F, the October mean; the next coldest, 1834, was 46.2
16
°F at 7 a.m. on 31 October
62.1
°F, the September mean, an ordinary September
Every day, the three readings and the rain gauge
18367 a.m., °F2 p.m., °F9 p.m., °FRain, in
1 September6467560.08
2 September465465
3 September5566600.03
4 September607872
5 September646752
6 September4260520.00
7 September436653
8 September427060
9 September5782560.04
10 September485653
11 September5470630.30
12 September6278690.07
13 September678272
14 September7284700.18
15 September628461
16 September547565
17 September6468640.45
18 September677867
19 September708876
20 September738065
21 September547656
22 September517465
23 September6380670.26
24 September647872
25 September546150
26 September576251
27 September5167460.04
28 September4051440.02
29 September4056460.02
30 September366147
1 October4966560.00
2 October6071500.50
3 October3858410.00
4 October4460480.02
5 October3842440.95
6 October3846430.23
7 October4256440.00
8 October4158440.00
9 October3156400.00
10 October2648360.00
11 October2450430.00
12 October3237341.25
13 October3252440.18
14 October4958510.32
15 October4356370.00
16 October3052430.05
17 October3554360.00
18 October3648310.00
19 October3252580.00
20 October6244310.60
21 October3440300.00
22 October2848320.00
23 October3258520.00
24 October4465510.05
25 October2838300.00
26 October2236380.00
27 October2448290.00
28 October1950430.00
29 October3242360.00
30 October3236220.00
31 October1639220.00

Step 3 · The claims tested

Against every October read at the same hours

October 1836 is the coldest of the 15 Octobers the arsenal read at 7 a.m., 2 p.m. and 9 p.m., from 1826 to 1840, by more than four degrees. Its first freezing morning, 9 October, was not unusually early; three other years froze sooner. What was unusual was that the cold stayed. Today the median first frost 6 km from Cole’s house comes on 18 October.

October mean temperature at Watervliet Arsenal, every October from 1826 to 1840Each dot is one October, the mean of the 7, 14 and 21 h readings. 1836 was 41.9 °F, the coldest of 15; the next was 1834, 46.2 °F.444852182618281830183218341836183818401826: 52.0 °F, 2 freezing mornings1827: 50.6 °F, 3 freezing mornings1828: 52.6 °F, 6 freezing mornings1829: 51.6 °F, 4 freezing mornings1830: 51.8 °F, 1 freezing mornings1831: 53.5 °F, 2 freezing mornings1832: 49.8 °F, 3 freezing mornings1833: 48.9 °F, 5 freezing mornings1834: 46.2 °F, 10 freezing mornings1835: 52.6 °F, 1 freezing mornings1837: 49.1 °F, 5 freezing mornings1838: 48.6 °F, 4 freezing mornings1839: 51.6 °F, 4 freezing mornings1840: 50.4 °F, 3 freezing mornings1836: 41.9 °F1836: 41.9 °F, 16 freezing mornings
Mean of the three daily readings; only Octobers with every reading present. These fixed-hour means are not comparable with modern daily highs and lows.

“The Season has been highly inauspicious to the farmer, and to the country. The hopes, feeble as they were, of tolerable fall crops, have, in many districts, been already blasted by the early frosts.”

The Cultivator (Albany), vol. 3, no. 8, October 1836, p. 125

“There is one season when the American forest surpasses all the world in gorgeousness — that is the autumnal”

Cole, “Essay on American Scenery”, American Monthly Magazine, January 1836

“The foliage is now falling in mournful showers. What a harsh and cruel climate!”

Cole, journal, 6 October 1837, a year later, in Noble 1853, p. 243. At Watervliet, 58 °F at 7 a.m. on 4 October 1837, then 28 °F on the 5th.

Step 4 · Why the verdict stops at the season

A view from memory

Cole painted the canvas that winter from earlier drawings and from memory, of a valley whose woods had been cut the spring before. He told the buyer so. The records describe the autumn around the painting’s making; they cannot test the scene it shows, and the title’s season stays unknown.

“They are cutting down all the trees in the beautiful valley on which I have looked so often with a loving eye.”

Cole to Luman Reed, Catskill, 26 March 1836, in L. L. Noble, The Course of Empire, Voyage of Life and Other Pictures of Thomas Cole (1853), p. 217

“In the winter I painted four pictures : A View on the Catskill, for Mr. Sturges”

Cole, journal, 14 May 1837, in Noble 1853, p. 238

“my picture may for years to come—tell what the Valley of the Catskill was before what is called “improvement” blasted the scene—I hope you will not anticipate too much in this picture—remember it is a view”

Cole to Jonathan Sturges, 24 February 1837, as transcribed by Christine I. Oaklander, Metropolitan Museum Journal 43 (2008), p. 176

Sources

Every source on this page

Each file was downloaded and given a fingerprint (its sha256). The page is rebuilt from these files and will not build if a fingerprint changes, so every number above comes from them rather than being typed in.

  1. Watervliet Arsenal daily register, 1825–1892: NOAA Climate Database Modernization Program, keyed and checked by the Midwestern Regional Climate CenterNOAA data; MRCC asks to be credited · retrieved 29 September 2026 · station 305259sha256 39dc7c82ebdd658bd601be43f125069d818b766ed0a86266f63a8c87eea3b487
  2. Watervliet Arsenal station metadata (MRCC)NOAA data; MRCC asks to be credited · retrieved 29 September 2026sha256 bef28cae431a241b63f8940e5c884b395c9ff697188bed47a500fe102418cc99
  3. NOAA NCEI 1991–2020 annual and seasonal normals, Hudson Correctional Facility, New York (USC00304025)U.S. government work · retrieved 29 September 2026sha256 aebdc2694f4e33a9a43be7d1e6b3ce79fdadd01774e20e422dccadb5050c35e1
  4. Louis Legrand Noble, The Course of Empire, Voyage of Life and Other Pictures of Thomas Cole (New York, 1853)Public domain; Internet Archive text · retrieved 29 September 2026sha256 c90e60284123221a31524a545c1db6c52677b42a018a5732496c4ed85bd3affc
  5. Thomas Cole, “Essay on American Scenery”, American Monthly Magazine, January 1836Public domain; Internet Archive text · retrieved 29 September 2026sha256 3f9b19985c260e4be7012a933a95b52ff0f8b4c82343d17d6f3828c6bfeb023d
  6. The Cultivator (Albany), vol. 3, 1836–37Public domain; Biodiversity Heritage Library · retrieved 29 September 2026 · no. 8, October 1836, p. 125sha256 0f80c7d59c0268b093c3952e3609a8890099e49d03932f5038883e0d734b854c
  7. Christine I. Oaklander, “Jonathan Sturges, W. H. Osborn, and William Church Osborn: A Chapter in American Art Patronage”, Metropolitan Museum Journal 43 (2008)© The Metropolitan Museum of Art; quoted for the 1837 letter it transcribes · retrieved 29 September 2026 · pp. 175–176sha256 fc85477c1f1654b7d1c11aa0a5b8805de294cc161e63d1ef94d449a97298878d
  8. The Metropolitan Museum of Art, View on the Catskill—Early Autumn, 95.13.3 (Open Access record)Public domain image (Met Open Access) · retrieved 29 September 2026sha256 90186460b07a85f075269a8a8603c3e764972ede6e367f6b9be7a9433fc99d54

The numbers on this page, as JSONThe method card, as JSON