Nephosthe weather behind the paintings

The watercolor is not reproduced here. No reproduction permission has been established.

View the work in Access O’Keeffe

Georgia O’Keeffe, Roof with Snow. Collection of the Amarillo Museum of Art. Catalogue raisonné no. 126.

A study against the weather record

Georgia O’Keeffe

Roof with Snow

1916 / 1917 disputed · Watercolor on paper · Amarillo Museum of Art · CR 126

Did snow fall on the day a scholar proposed for this watercolor?

0.00inches of precipitation at Amarillo on Sunday 11 March 1917, the day proposed for an all-day snowfall.

11 March snowfall contradictsSnow after the move partially agreesPainted day unknown

The recordsAmarillo Museum of Art

The Nephos method

How this study was read

The method in full
  1. What is written

    H. Daniel Peck (2007) dates the watercolor to early 1917 and, with a stated hedge, suggests an all-day snowfall on Sunday 11 March 1917 may have prompted it. The catalogue raisonné gives 1916 (CR 126).

  2. Records of those days

    • Amarillo City, WBAN 2307572 daily entries, 18 February to 30 April 1917, about 28 km from the house by archive coordinates. The later airport series is not substituted.

    Not found or not yet searched

    • The letters Peck and Von Lintel cite were not read; only their published quotations and dates.
    • Snow depth is missing on all 72 dates. No Canyon observation or roof-cover record has been found.
  3. Each claim tested

    • Did snow or rain fall at Amarillo on Sunday 11 March 1917? No: precipitation 0.00 in, new snow 0.0 in, high 73 °F, low 29 °F. 10 and 12 March were also dry.
    • How many dates from 18 February to 30 April 1917 have measurable snowfall at Amarillo? 1: 3 March (2.5 in). Traces on 1, 13 and 26 March and 1 April. April has none measurable.
    • Does this identify days when the painted roof held snow? No. Snow can lie after it falls; snow depth was not reported, and no painting session is recorded.
  4. Verdict

    The record does not show snow on 11 March 1917. It does show 2.5 inches on 3 March, after the move. Neither date can be attached to the painting.

    • ContradictsPeck’s proposed day: an all-day snowfall on Sunday 11 March 1917 Amarillo recorded no precipitation and a high of 73 °F that day, and none on 10 or 12 March. The verdict holds only if the letter is dated correctly and Amarillo, 28 km away, stands for Canyon.
    • Partially agreesPeck’s broader claim: a snowfall after the mid-February move could have been the occasion 2.5 inches fell at Amarillo on 3 March. The record cannot show which snow, if any, she painted; after 11 March it shows only traces.
    • UnknownThe painted day No object-linked session date, snow depth or roof record exists, and the 1916/1917 year remains disputed.

What this cannot tell you. The catalogue-year disagreement remains open. The weather does not choose between 1916 and 1917. Peck dates the move to 18 February; Von Lintel’s timeline gives 5 February. Under the earlier date, Amarillo’s 2.2 inches of 14 February also fall after the move. Station distance gives context, not proof of identical local conditions. A local shower in Canyon cannot be fully excluded. The snowfall letter and the fine-day letter are both O’Keeffe’s, known here only through published quotations and dates.

Step 1 · The watercolor and the house

One roof, more than one date

Roof with Snow belongs to the Amarillo Museum of Art. The work treated here is the watercolor catalogued as CR 126, not either of its two smaller studies. Access O’Keeffe describes a blue roof, pink patches, a dormer and a grey sky. Its description includes two chimneys jut into the gray sky. The object record.

H. Daniel Peck identifies the subject as the house across the street at 2000 Fifth Avenue, then also called Evelyn Avenue. O’Keeffe looked across at it from her upstairs room in the Shirley house at 500 Twentieth Street, whose large dormer faced east. Peck reads the county deed index as showing a vacant lot in spring 1916 and a house there, moved onto the site, by the end of that year. The Texas Historical Commission gives the same address and a view from her second-floor window. Peck, pp. 100 and 105, note 4; house identification, PDF p. 56.

The year is disputed. Access O’Keeffe heads its record 1916, the catalogue raisonné date, while its notes say Abiquiú Notebooks dates 1917. Peck dates the watercolor to early 1917. His basis is a label in O’Keeffe’s handwriting assigning this date in the Amarillo Museum of Art’s archives, fixed to the backing of her frame. He adds that the notebooks give 1917, with a separate entry that gives 1915. Neither the label nor the notebooks were inspected here, and the weather does not choose between the years. Peck, p. 109, note 23.

Step 2 · Peck’s proposal and his hedge

A snowfall on Sunday 11 March

Peck dates the move into the Shirley house to 18 February 1917, from O’Keeffe’s letter of the day before announcing it. Until 26 March she lived in her sister Claudia’s adjoining, north-facing room. That day she wrote I moved into my white room today. Peck, p. 105, and p. 109, note 19.

His proposal for the day follows on the next page, in the two sentences quoted below. He hedges it himself in the paragraph after them. The exact day, he writes, can never be known: the winter brought several significant snowfalls, and any of them after mid-February—when the artist moved into the Shirley house—could have been the occasion for this work. His letter for 11 March is cited to the Stieglitz/O’Keeffe archive at Yale. The study tests the two weather claims he makes: the snowfall of 11 March, and snow after the move. Peck, p. 106, and p. 109, note 22.

The window therefore runs on his terms: every day from 18 February to 30 April 1917, 72 days. Von Lintel’s timeline dates the move to 5 February instead, citing O’Keeffe’s letter of 4 February in Greenough’s edition of the correspondence. The window does not choose between the two dates. Timeline p. 20 and p. 54, note 139.

“O’Keeffe mentioned an all-day snowfall of Sunday, March 11, in a letter that day to Stieglitz.”

Peck, p. 106

“…it is tempting to speculate that the snowfall of March 11 inspired Roof with Snow; perhaps the sketches were painted that day.”

Peck, p. 106

Step 3 · The record on Sunday 11 March

No precipitation, and a high of 73 °F

Amarillo City reported 0.00 inches of precipitation and no new snow on Sunday 11 March 1917. The high was 73 °F, the low 29 °F. The days either side were dry too: 10 March reached 73 °F and 12 March 54 °F, with no precipitation on either. March daily data.

New snow at Amarillo City, 18 February to 30 April 19171 date with measurable snowfall, 3 March; 4 trace dates; 67 reported zeroes. 11 March, the day Peck proposed, reports 0.00 inches of precipitation and a high of 73 °F. Snow depth is unavailable on all 72 dates. Full values appear in the table below.0123Daily snowfall · inchesMoved in, 18 Feb (Peck)11 Mar · 0.00 in · high 73 °FOwn room, 26 Mar18 February 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknownFebruary1819 February 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown20 February 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown21 February 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown22 February 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown23 February 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown24 February 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown25 February 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown26 February 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown2627 February 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown28 February 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown1 March 1917: trace snowfall; amount not quantifiedTMarch12 March 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown3 March 1917: 2.5 inches2.5 in · 3 March4 March 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown5 March 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown6 March 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown7 March 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown8 March 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown9 March 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown10 March 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown11 March 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown1112 March 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown13 March 1917: trace snowfall; amount not quantifiedT14 March 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown15 March 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown16 March 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown17 March 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown18 March 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown1819 March 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown20 March 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown21 March 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown22 March 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown23 March 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown24 March 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown25 March 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown26 March 1917: trace snowfall; amount not quantifiedT2627 March 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown28 March 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown29 March 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown30 March 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown31 March 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown1 April 1917: trace snowfall; amount not quantifiedTApril12 April 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown3 April 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown4 April 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown5 April 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown6 April 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown7 April 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown8 April 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown9 April 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown10 April 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown11 April 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown1112 April 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown13 April 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown14 April 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown15 April 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown16 April 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown17 April 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown18 April 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown1819 April 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown20 April 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown21 April 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown22 April 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown23 April 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown24 April 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown25 April 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown26 April 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown2627 April 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown28 April 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown29 April 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown30 April 1917: reported zero snowfall; snow cover unknown301917 · reporting dateT = trace; short baseline marks = reported zero; shaded day = 11 MarchSnow depth: missing on all 72 dates. No roof-cover duration can be counted.
Amarillo City, WBAN 23075, NOAA/RCC ACIS. Trace reports are kept separate from numerical zeroes. New snowfall and existing snow cover are different quantities. No date in this chart is assigned to the watercolor.

Verdict: Contradicts, on two conditions. The first is that the letter is dated correctly; it was not read here. The second is that Amarillo stands for Canyon. The station’s archive coordinates are about 28 km from the house, and a local shower in Canyon cannot be fully excluded. But an all-day snowfall, with no precipitation at the station and a 73 °F afternoon, is not supported by this record.

The observation hours are not recorded, so a reporting date may not match a calendar day exactly. That is why 10 and 12 March are shown as well: all three dates are dry. These are the historical city observations, marked as CRB data by ACIS. The Weather Service places its downtown office at Taylor and Seventh Streets until the move to the airport in April 1941; the 1917 instrument position has not been surveyed here. Station history; ThreadEx station history; address geocode; format and units.

Step 4 · What the record does show

Snow on 3 March, then only traces

Across the 72 days, Amarillo recorded one measurable snowfall: 2.5 inches (63.5 mm) on Saturday 3 March, 13 days after Peck’s move date. The high that day was 27 °F and the low 12 °F; the next day ran from 6 to 37 °F. Traces of snow appear on 1, 13 and 26 March and 1 April. The other 67 dates report no new snow, and April has no measurable snowfall at all. February, March and April daily data.

Verdict on the broader claim: Partially agrees. Snow did fall after the move, so a snowfall in that period could have been the occasion. The record cannot show which snow, if any, she painted. After 11 March it shows no measurable snowfall through 30 April, only traces.

One snowfall lies just outside the window. Amarillo recorded 2.2 inches on 14 February, 4 days before Peck’s move date. Under the 5 February date in Von Lintel’s timeline, it would also fall after the move. February daily data.

The NWS daily-record table lists the same 3 March amount. That is a cross-check within the federal weather record, not an independent second observation. NWS table.

Every daily entry, 18 February to 30 April 1917
Amarillo City. Precipitation is liquid equivalent, not a second snowfall depth.
DateNew snow, inSnow depth, inLow, °FHigh, °FPrecip., in
18 February0Missing2661T (trace)
19 February0Missing26560
20 February0Missing30610
21 February0Missing36630
22 February0Missing34710
23 February0Missing41680
24 February0Missing35640
25 February0Missing48830
26 February0Missing38720
27 February0Missing24510
28 February0Missing21420
1 MarchT (trace)Missing2431T (trace)
2 March0Missing26480
3 March2.5Missing12270.25
4 March0Missing6370
5 March0Missing23640
6 March0Missing29560
7 March0Missing20550
8 March0Missing29690
9 March0Missing34750
10 March0Missing41730
11 March0Missing29730
12 March0Missing31540
13 MarchT (trace)Missing2855T (trace)
14 March0Missing29670
15 March0Missing40740
16 March0Missing26490
17 March0Missing14580
18 March0Missing23630
19 March0Missing35780
20 March0Missing32750
21 March0Missing37680
22 March0Missing39790
23 March0Missing30580
24 March0Missing28730
25 March0Missing36770
26 MarchT (trace)Missing2746T (trace)
27 March0Missing23600
28 March0Missing30780
29 March0Missing43820
30 March0Missing46860
31 March0Missing42670
1 AprilT (trace)Missing3445T (trace)
2 April0Missing30620
3 April0Missing37720
4 April0Missing33530
5 April0Missing32760
6 April0Missing46820
7 April0Missing38560
8 April0Missing26610
9 April0Missing34710
10 April0Missing47710.29
11 April0Missing35610.22
12 April0Missing38550.01
13 April0Missing39660.01
14 April0Missing41610.05
15 April0Missing41810
16 April0Missing50770
17 April0Missing51820
18 April0Missing54780.13
19 April0Missing3969T (trace)
20 April0Missing36670
21 April0Missing41800
22 April0Missing50870
23 April0Missing54900
24 April0Missing51800
25 April0Missing46710
26 April0Missing47840
27 April0Missing37690
28 April0Missing3561T (trace)
29 April0Missing31510
30 April0Missing3560T (trace)

Step 5 · Falling snow is not lying snow

The roof has no daily register

Snow can lie after the day it falls. All 72 snow-depth entries are missing, and even a ground-depth measurement at Amarillo would not measure a roof in Canyon. Roof slope, exposure and heat from the building would also matter.

How many days fit the painting? The record supplies a count of measurable snowfall dates at Amarillo. It supplies no defensible count of snow-covered days on this roof, or of possible painting days. A reported zero for new snow does not mean no snow lay on roofs. No melt model or persistence duration is calculated.

Step 6 · The artist’s words, separately dated

A fine day in the canyon

Von Lintel’s timeline prints O’Keeffe’s account of an outing to Palo Duro Canyon: The day couldn’t have been finer. Its note gives the letter as 12 March in the Stieglitz/O’Keeffe archive and 11 March in Greenough’s edition. Timeline p. 24 and p. 54, note 169.

Two published readings of O’Keeffe’s letters therefore place different weather on Sunday 11 March: Peck’s all-day snowfall and the timeline’s fine day in the canyon. The station record fits the fine day. The timeline notes that the archive dates letters according to their postmark and Greenough according to their time of composition. A dating offset between letters is one possible explanation. The original letters were not read here, so the study does not decide which letter or date is off. Timeline p. 49, note 10.

These are short passages from modern transcriptions of the artist’s own words, not independent weather observations, and neither passage names this watercolor. No contemporary Canyon or Amarillo newspaper snow report was verified in this bounded search. Archive access failed; that is a gap in this study, not evidence that no report survives.

Step 7 · Return to the watercolor

A tested proposal, an unknown day

The record does not show snow at Amarillo on 11 March 1917. It does show snow on 3 March, after the move. Neither date can be attached to the watercolor: the painted day is Unknown.

Peck offered 11 March as a speculation and said so. The test here bears on that speculation only, not on his identification of the house, his reading of the two studies, or his 1917 dating from the artist’s label. The museum’s description concerns colored shapes and a cropped view; no sky color or snow depth is recovered from them. The next useful evidence is the 11 March letter itself, read against its postmark and Greenough’s date, and any Canyon report of snow that winter.

Sources

Every source on this page

Daily weather values are rebuilt from the fingerprinted Amarillo City responses for February, March and April 1917. Receipts identify original files and text extractions separately. Short quotations are checked against the cached text, and each quotation from Peck against the printed page it is cited to. The copyrighted article is not republished. A fingerprint preserves the source used, not the truth of an interpretation.

  1. NOAA/RCC ACIS, Amarillo City (WBAN 23075), 1–28 February 1917U.S. government weather observations; public RCC ACIS service · retrieved 17 October 2026sha256 33e977dce9d1df78b1376ce9314afa52c1300b561a298d58dbbe1ccc58bb5023Same request shape as the March file. 18–28 February are in the tested window; 1–17 February are reported separately as before Peck’s move date.
  2. NOAA/RCC ACIS, Amarillo City (WBAN 23075), 1–31 March 1917U.S. government weather observations; public RCC ACIS service · retrieved 15 October 2026sha256 ee70285a1f936aaade7ec13531894be49d1450f8865f4f273cb38c5398841881Daily maxt, mint, pcpn, snow, snwd; flags, observation time, station ID, network and source flag retained.
  3. NOAA/RCC ACIS, Amarillo City (WBAN 23075), 1–30 April 1917U.S. government weather observations; public RCC ACIS service · retrieved 17 October 2026sha256 63c414e29bf36f34fef24d0cc9fd736564cdfbb512cc5e82802084a6924ff29fSame request shape as the March file. Closes the tested window on 30 April.
  4. RCC ACIS station metadata, WBAN 23075U.S. government station metadata via RCC ACIS · retrieved 15 October 2026sha256 0b7057d266b5d3661f8f080a22a2d488b1cecd3038ce97abd86469def691d7baCoordinates are an archive station reference; exact 1917 instrument exposure is not established.
  5. NOAA/RCC ThreadEx, station-thread historyPublic NOAA/RCC station metadata · retrieved 15 October 2026sha256 7cbceb63832be4b5ca53cce76a6dd713349f58b8965142d20006bed1e9c7b85bAmarillo: city WBAN 23075 through March 1941, then airport. No threaded series is used for the calculation.
  6. RCC ACIS Web Services documentationPublic technical documentation; short factual attribution · retrieved 15 October 2026sha256 d8a86b4e4370c99586e8912b1b48e73192bc266457fc4a00c4fb440102a77311Tables 3 and 7; missing M, trace T, accumulated A; imperial units; source network 56 = CRB.
  7. National Weather Service, Amarillo daily recordsU.S. government work · retrieved 15 October 2026sha256 24ea858ea17bf7c09c345fde1aa6d6d4abe399e3ec2d8d229cc23a7e9eeba880March table, day 3 snowfall; table last updated 31 July 2020. Cross-check of the same observation lineage, not an independent witness.
  8. National Weather Service, Amarillo station historyU.S. government work · retrieved 15 October 2026sha256 2e892b0c4ebca1c0cd2fbb40d61c930c9f484a9e5d318533e2ae866c4d27b2f8Downtown office opened at Taylor and Seventh in 1903; moved to the air terminal in April 1941.
  9. Georgia O’Keeffe Museum, Access O’Keeffe: Roof with Snow, CR 126Copyright retained; factual metadata and short attributed text only; no image reused · retrieved 15 October 2026sha256 ab154ac52f928d6d04cfbff3e0509ffe32267b78418f3b01e43d85a546345010Record supplied/verified with Amarillo Museum of Art. CR 126 is the catalogue number; L.2016.8.3 is not asserted to be the holder accession.
  10. Text extraction of Access O’Keeffe, CR 126Copyright retained; short excerpts only · retrieved 15 October 2026sha256 2465d3b06fa912f5942a737d3506be53a5935a263c182ee5411a51a3e8b3632eHTMLParser text extraction, whitespace normalized; derivative of museum receipt.
  11. Amarillo Museum of Art, collection pageCopyright retained; factual attribution; no image reused · retrieved 15 October 2026sha256 44f62a474c026bdafad3f0aecb503d34299de7da334c281369a27cb1d23ba021Holder link; collection-level page, not an individual Roof with Snow record.
  12. Texas Historical Commission, July 2021 History Programs Committee packetState text; brief quotation and factual attribution; no image republished · retrieved 15 October 2026sha256 df2bd270bc17619aad8b8c1412d287a5c43a2e99561bdb2490cf14740b33b827PDF p. 56, Roof with Snow / Kimbrough House, 2000 5th Avenue. Marker text dated 2020, edited 2021.
  13. Text extraction of the Texas Historical Commission packetState text; brief quotation and factual attribution · retrieved 15 October 2026sha256 0b9e53e35ccb8fc673a664aaa63c89762de8687365b00098c3be80804c94c09dPDF p. 56 rendered and inspected; derivative of marker receipt.
  14. Amy M. Von Lintel, Georgia O’Keeffe in the Texas Panhandle: A Timeline (2014)Copyright retained; university-provided research PDF; short quotation only · retrieved 15 October 2026sha256 a28f708d446af752f180869e886db031e808ac0ba0ff85dffd715525a63f09d9PDF/printed p. 20 and p. 54 note 139 (move date); p. 24 and p. 54 note 169 (fine-day letter); p. 49 note 10 (letter dating). Original letters not inspected.
  15. Text extraction of Von Lintel’s timelineCopyright retained; short quotation only · retrieved 15 October 2026sha256 df4c2a595658f90a5a2a953612a664cdecea50abc933d0d6c299a1b3bd8fb4d5Whitespace-normalized PyMuPDF extraction. Relevant letter passage and note rendered and inspected; derivative of timeline receipt.
  16. H. Daniel Peck, “The House across the Street: Georgia O’Keeffe’s Roof with Snow,” American Art 21, no. 3 (Fall 2007): 98–109Copyrighted article (JSTOR copy); short quotations with page numbers only; not republished · retrieved 17 October 2026sha256 cd05f7247bae7ed1dd2059949f06a78898bd9cfd5e2fefd39ab518892ea8fd13Printed pp. 98–109 are PDF pp. 2–13. Quoted passages were read on the rendered pages 105, 106, 108 and 109. The letters Peck cites were not read.
  17. Text extraction of Peck (2007)Copyrighted text; short quotations only; not republished · retrieved 17 October 2026sha256 f092cc9df74065551c489665fbc6f6002169344a5c21870352b7073c0aa61bb6pdftotext 26.04, default reading order, one block per PDF page, whitespace normalized; derivative of the article receipt.
  18. Crossref publisher-deposited metadata for H. Daniel Peck, The House across the Street (2007)Bibliographic metadata only · retrieved 15 October 2026sha256 e9d7d607b124b35073937f7d4affc6ad55e15748f1aca43a6014960e2ce0d372American Art 21(3), pp. 98–109. Checks the citation of the article receipt.
  19. OpenStreetMap Nominatim, 2000 5th Avenue, Canyon, TexasODbL 1.0, © OpenStreetMap contributors · retrieved 15 October 2026sha256 734f1e1c3f3b693ea62f1ccd697d7766a98159b2aafea0758178e2cb397c9984Present-day address geocode, OSM way 21193949. Contextual location, not a survey of the 1917 easel.

The numbers on this page, as JSONThe method card, as JSON