Nephosthe weather behind the paintings
Winslow Homer, After the Hurricane, Bahamas: a man lies on a beach among the wreck of his boat, under breaking cloud.
Art Institute of Chicago, 1933.1235, public domain

A study against the weather record

Winslow Homer

After the Hurricane, Bahamas

1899 · Art Institute of Chicago, 1933.1235

The title says a hurricane had passed. Was there one while Homer was in the Bahamas?

0tropical storms or hurricanes in NOAA’s Atlantic record between 4 November 1898 and 26 June 1899.

Hurricane unknown

The recordsLook closer at the painting

The Nephos method

How this study was read

The method in full
  1. What is written

    The Bahamas, in the winter of 1898–99 as the museum dates Homer’s visit; signed 1899. The title names a hurricane.

  2. Records of those days

    Not found or not yet searched

    • The daily Nassau register kept at the Bahamas Cable Office was summarised by Fassig but not printed day by day, and has not been found.
    • No open source found gives the month Homer arrived in or left the Bahamas.
    • Nassau newspapers for the winter have not been searched.
  3. Each claim tested

    • “After the Hurricane”. NOAA’s hurricane database (HURDAT2) records no tropical storm or hurricane anywhere in the Atlantic between 4 November 1898 and 26 June 1899. Five storms passed within 500 km of Nassau from August to October 1898; the strongest there, a hurricane of 95 knots, stayed 381 km away on 30 September.
    • Page’s hurricane of 26 September 1898. Fassig quotes Page on a hurricane “of small area but of great intensity” west of Eleuthera on 26 September and at Great Abaco by the 27th. The only storm HURDAT2 places in the Bahamas those days passes Great Abaco on the 27th but is rated no more than 45 knots, a tropical storm, and comes no nearer Nassau than 173 km.
    • “After the Tornado”. HURDAT2 does not record tornadoes, and the Fassig passages read for this study do not mention one.
    • “gradually thinning storm clouds”, the museum’s reading of the sky. Fassig prints Nassau’s weather only as five-year averages and extremes. Thunderstorms averaged 0 in December, 0.8 in January and 0.6 in February, 1898–1902.
  4. Verdict

    The winter was quiet: NOAA’s hurricane database records no tropical storm or hurricane anywhere in the Atlantic between 4 November 1898 and 26 June 1899.

    • Unknown“After the Hurricane” The storms nearest Nassau came in September and October 1898, before the winter the museum gives; which storm, if any, the title means cannot be shown.
    • Unknown“After the Tornado” No record read for this study covers tornadoes.
    • Unknown“gradually thinning storm clouds” No day’s sky at Nassau that winter is on record.
    • UnknownThe day painted. The museum gives a winter, not a day.

What this cannot tell you. Storm positions for 1898–99 are modern reconstructions from ship and coast reports; a small storm far from shipping could be missing. Distances are to a storm’s centre, not the wind felt on a beach. The museum names the Bahamas, not an island; Nassau stands in because its record is the one Fassig published. A winter gale is not a tropical storm and would not appear in HURDAT2.

Step 2 · Records of those days

Every storm of 1898 and 1899

NOAA’s hurricane database (HURDAT2) gives the centre of every known tropical storm and hurricane every six hours. Each line is one storm; its lowest point marks the closest it came to Nassau. 21 are recorded across the two years; none between 4 November 1898 and 26 June 1899.

How close every Atlantic storm of 1898 and 1899 came to NassauEach line drops from the top to the storm’s closest recorded distance from Nassau. None is recorded between 4 November 1898 and 26 June 1899.No tropical storm recorded4 November 1898 to 26 June 1899The museum places the paintingin this winter.5001,0001,500kmNassauJFMAMJJASOND1898JFMAMJJASOND1899AL011898: closest 268 km, 2 August 1898, tropical storm of 35 knotsAL021898: closest 503 km, 30 August 1898, tropical storm of 35 knotsAL031898: closest 3,691 km, 3 September 1898, hurricane of 70 knotsAL051898: closest 1,132 km, 15 September 1898, tropical storm of 50 knotsAL041898: closest 935 km, 17 September 1898, hurricane of 85 knotsAL061898: closest 1,115 km, 23 September 1898, tropical storm of 50 knotsAL081898: closest 173 km, 27 September 1898, tropical storm of 45 knotsAL071898: closest 381 km, 30 September 1898, hurricane of 95 knotsAL091898: closest 214 km, 11 October 1898, tropical storm of 60 knotsAL101898: closest 145 km, 23 October 1898, no longer tropical of 35 knotsAL111898: closest 852 km, 31 October 1898, tropical storm of 50 knotsAL011899: closest 1,584 km, 26 June 1899, tropical storm of 35 knotsAL021899: closest 252 km, 30 July 1899, tropical storm of 40 knotsAL031899: closest 67 km, 12 August 1899, hurricane of 105 knotsAL041899: closest 719 km, 3 September 1899, hurricane of 65 knotsAL051899: closest 740 km, 11 September 1899, hurricane of 105 knotsAL061899: closest 600 km, 5 October 1899, tropical storm of 40 knotsAL071899: closest 3,470 km, 14 October 1899, tropical storm of 40 knotsAL081899: closest 52 km, 15 October 1899, tropical depression of 30 knotsAL091899: closest 136 km, 30 October 1899, hurricane of 75 knotsAL101899: closest 267 km, 10 November 1899, tropical depression of 30 knotsab
  1. a 27 September 1898, 173 km: a tropical storm of 45 knots. Page reports a hurricane near Great Abaco that day.
  2. b 12 August 1899, 67 km: a hurricane of 105 knots, the storm Page calls the “Porto Rican hurricane”.
NOAA’s reconstructed storm tracks (HURDAT2). Red: a hurricane at its closest point. Dot size follows the wind there. Distances beyond 1,500 km are marked at the top.

Step 3 · The claim tested

The 10 that came within 500 km

The other 11 passed farther away. Every storm that came within 500 km fell between late July and mid-November, before or after the winter the museum gives.

Date of closest approach (UTC)DistanceStrength thereWind therePeak wind on its track
2 August 1898268 kmtropical storm35 kt70 kt
27 September 1898173 kmtropical storm45 kt45 kt
30 September 1898381 kmhurricane95 kt115 kt
11 October 1898214 kmtropical storm60 kt60 kt
23 October 1898145 kmno longer tropical35 kt40 kt
4 November 1898 to 26 June 1899: no tropical storm or hurricane recorded anywhere in the Atlantic
30 July 1899252 kmtropical storm40 kt85 kt
12 August 189967 kmhurricane105 kt130 kt
15 October 189952 kmtropical depression30 kt40 kt
30 October 1899136 kmhurricane75 kt95 kt
10 November 1899267 kmtropical depression30 kt55 kt

Step 3 · The claim tested

What a Weather Bureau climatologist printed in 1905

Oliver Fassig wrote the climate chapter of The Bahama Islands from the Nassau record of 1898 to 1902, the years around Homer’s visit. His September chart of hurricane tracks puts Nassau in their path; his text says when they come.

Printed chart: tracks of West Indian hurricanes, September, 1878 to 1903, from Texas to Trinidad, with Nassau near the centre.
Fassig, Plate XXII: tracks of West Indian hurricanes in September, 1878–1903. Printed across two pages and joined here at the fold. Nassau circled.
Printed paragraph from page 120 on hurricanes in the Bahama Islands.
Fassig, page 120. Hurricanes “are confined practically to the months of August, September and October”.

“On the morning of September 26, 1898, a hurricane of small area but of great intensity was discovered, central to the west of Eleuthera.”

James Page, 1901, quoted by Fassig, page 122

“The lowest temperature recorded during the five-year period under consideration was 53°, which occurred on the 14th day of February, 1899.”

Fassig, page 114. The coldest reading of his five years, 53 °F (11.7 °C), fell in Homer’s winter.

Average thunderstorms at Nassau, 1898–1902: December 0, January 0.8, February 0.6, against 7.2 in August.

Fassig, page 120, table

Step 4 · Why the verdict is Unknown

A title, not a date

The record finds no storm during the winter itself, and that cannot settle a title. It could mean the autumn storms, a storm Homer was told about, or no particular storm; nothing on record decides between them. The Metropolitan Museum dates his watercolour Hurricane, Bahamas to 1898; the last tropical storm of 1898 in NOAA’s record ended on 4 November 1898.

Sources

Every source on this page

Each file was downloaded and given a fingerprint (its sha256). The page is rebuilt from these files and will not build if a fingerprint changes, so every number above comes from them rather than being typed in.

  1. NOAA National Hurricane Center, HURDAT2 Atlantic best track, 1851–2025US Government work, public domain · retrieved 23 September 2026sha256 df63fabce0ad824d20447e241bd27a2a65ae36cb2f9b62aa3caacd9171c34f11Positions for 1898–99 are reanalysed reconstructions. Wind radii are not recorded for those years, and central pressure at only 10 of 706 positions.
  2. Art Institute of Chicago, After the Hurricane, Bahamas, 1933.1235Data CC0; description CC BY 4.0 · retrieved 23 September 2026sha256 5e3ddb15ed2953141605229dc429d56ab4e6f257fa959f3076b9a74594bc5581
  3. O. L. Fassig, “Climate of the Bahama Islands”, in G. B. Shattuck (ed.), The Bahama Islands (1905)Published 1905; public domain in the United States · retrieved 23 September 2026sha256 e3600ca761cdb1be652888e48533d33dcefbbc8d9e769e27fc38c497fb08c037Quotations checked against the page images, pp. 111–123.
  4. The Metropolitan Museum of Art, Winslow Homer, Hurricane, Bahamas, 10.228.7Met Open Access data, CC0 · retrieved 23 September 2026sha256 85f522c33dea62ec2c75a5147a1128a90c722f6736a7611ce8b2a3fb502a4e25

The numbers on this page, as JSONThe method card, as JSON

Look closer

Why does the storm still feel present?

A close reading of the clouds, waves and wreckage in the watercolour itself. It reads the picture; this page tests what is written about it.

Open the close reading