{
 "schema": "nephos.method.v1",
 "slug": "winter-wreck-lobster-cove-1948",
 "title": "Andrew Winter, Wreck at Lobster Cove, Monhegan, Maine (1949)",
 "urls": [
  "/studies/winter-wreck-lobster-cove-1948"
 ],
 "written": {
  "summary": "The catalogue year and the depicted event are separate dates. The museum assigns Winter’s scene to the morning after the 5 November 1948 grounding.",
  "items": [
   {
    "quote": "The painting is of the following morning.",
    "source": "Jennifer Pye, Director, Monhegan Museum of Art & History, email to Vedang Sharma, 13 October 2026",
    "url": "https://nephos-mocha.vercel.app/data/studies/winter-wreck-lobster-cove-1948.json"
   },
   {
    "quote": "11:15 p.m. Friday (Nov. 5)",
    "source": "Bangor Daily News, 8 November 1948, article and photograph caption, as transcribed in Aislinn Sarnacki, 1-minute hike: Lobster Cove on Monhegan Island, 20 May 2014 (updated 3 October 2019).",
    "url": "https://www.bangordailynews.com/2014/05/20/outdoors/act-out/1-minute-hike-lobster-cove-on-monhegan-island-2/"
   },
   {
    "quote": "dense fog Saturday morning",
    "source": "Bangor Daily News, 8 November 1948, article and photograph caption, as transcribed in Aislinn Sarnacki, 1-minute hike: Lobster Cove on Monhegan Island, 20 May 2014 (updated 3 October 2019).",
    "url": "https://www.bangordailynews.com/2014/05/20/outdoors/act-out/1-minute-hike-lobster-cove-on-monhegan-island-2/"
   }
  ]
 },
 "records": [
  {
   "name": "NOAA ISD, Portland airport, 999999-14764",
   "detail": "48 hourly reports over two full EST dates, 81.4 km from the Monhegan lighthouse reference. Visibility, wind, temperature and sky coverage; regional context.",
   "url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/noaa/1948/999999-14764-1948.gz"
  }
 ],
 "gaps": [
  "No island meteorological log or sea-state record has been recovered for this comparison.",
  "No verified object-specific account of the painted sky or of the painting sessions."
 ],
 "tests": [
  {
   "claim": "What happened to visibility at the airport?",
   "result": "Portland recorded 100–200 m visibility at the six hourly reports from 06:00 to 11:00 EST on 6 November. This supports a regional fog context for the museum’s morning-after attribution, not the view from Lobster Cove."
  },
  {
   "claim": "Does this establish a weather cause or the painter’s accuracy?",
   "result": "No. A regional observation cannot establish visibility at a vessel, wave height at the shore, or what the artist retained or changed."
  }
 ],
 "finding": "Portland recorded 100–200 m visibility at the six hourly reports from 06:00 to 11:00 EST on 6 November. This supports a regional fog context for the museum’s morning-after attribution, not the view from Lobster Cove.",
 "verdicts": [
  {
   "claim": "The reported fog during the Sheridan grounding",
   "verdict": "Partially agrees",
   "reason": "The newspaper’s fog account and poor visibility at Portland are compatible; the airport is not the wreck site."
  },
  {
   "claim": "The painted sky and sea",
   "verdict": "Unknown",
   "reason": "No verified sky description, local measurement or documented change by the artist."
  }
 ],
 "limits": [
  "The archive’s zero visibility encoding is not a literal zero optical range. Wind averaging periods and historical exposure remain unresolved.",
  "All displayed hours are fixed EST (UTC−5). Summaries describe sampled hours, not continuous conditions.",
  "No artwork reproduction is shown because an explicit open licence was not established."
 ]
}