{
 "schema": "nephos.method.v1",
 "slug": "turner-rain-steam-speed-1844",
 "title": "Turner, Rain, Steam and Speed (exhibited 1844), NG538",
 "urls": [
  "/studies/turner-rain-steam-speed-1844"
 ],
 "written": {
  "summary": "The exhibition supplies a firm date in May 1844. The painted shower has no established date. April is selected only as the preceding complete month.",
  "items": [
   {
    "quote": "exhibited 1844",
    "source": "Judy Egerton, The British Paintings (2000), NG538, catalogue heading.",
    "url": "https://www.nationalgallery.org.uk/paintings/catalogues/egerton-2000/rain-steam-and-speed-the-great-western-railway"
   },
   {
    "quote": "6 May — 27 July",
    "source": "Royal Academy Summer Exhibition: A Chronicle, 1844, exhibition dates.",
    "url": "https://chronicle250.com/1844"
   },
   {
    "quote": "real rain, behind which is real sunshine",
    "source": "W. M. Thackeray, May Gambols; or, Titmarsh in the Picture-Galleries, Fraser’s Magazine 29 (June 1844), p. 712.",
    "url": "https://archive.org/download/sim_frasers-magazine_1844-06_29_174/sim_frasers-magazine_1844-06_29_174_djvu.txt"
   }
  ]
 },
 "records": [
  {
   "name": "Oxford daily rainfall, released by Stephen Burt",
   "detail": "46.9 km from the bridge using approximate site coordinates. All 30 dated entries for April 1844 are summed as monthly context; early entries may span several days.",
   "url": "https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/11956239"
  },
  {
   "name": "Thackeray’s exhibition review and Lady Simon’s later account",
   "detail": "A contemporary response to the canvas is distinguished from a retrospective journey story. Neither is a local gauge reading.",
   "url": "https://archive.org/download/sim_frasers-magazine_1844-06_29_174/sim_frasers-magazine_1844-06_29_174_djvu.txt"
  }
 ],
 "gaps": [
  "No dated observation or preparatory sky study has been tied to this canvas in the sources checked.",
  "No accepted observation at Maidenhead identifies the pictured shower.",
  "Lady Simon gives no day of the month and identifies her fellow passenger retrospectively."
 ],
 "tests": [
  {
   "claim": "Does the night-journey story establish the painting’s weather?",
   "result": "No. The window scene is at Bristol; her storm is over at Swindon. The canvas shows daylight and rain at Maidenhead, with a train travelling west."
  },
  {
   "claim": "What was the month before the exhibition like at Oxford?",
   "result": "Oxford’s April 1844 entries sum to 6.0 mm, rank 9 from driest among 192 Aprils (1828–2019). This is regional context before the May exhibition. Neither the gauge nor Lady Simon’s later story dates the rain at Maidenhead."
  },
  {
   "claim": "Does a dry Oxford month contradict the painted rain?",
   "result": "No. The depicted day is unknown, April is not a creation date, and a remote monthly total cannot exclude a local shower."
  }
 ],
 "finding": "Oxford’s April 1844 entries sum to 6.0 mm, rank 9 from driest among 192 Aprils (1828–2019). This is regional context before the May exhibition. Neither the gauge nor Lady Simon’s later story dates the rain at Maidenhead.",
 "verdicts": [
  {
   "claim": "The date and local weather of the painted shower",
   "verdict": "Unknown",
   "reason": "The exhibition date is secure; no document connects a particular day’s local weather to the canvas."
  },
  {
   "claim": "Turner as Lady Simon’s fellow passenger",
   "verdict": "Unknown",
   "reason": "Her later identification is not independently established."
  }
 ],
 "limits": [
  "Pre-1853 entries can include multi-day accumulations. The release includes estimates and corrections without per-value flags. No wet-day count, storm date or rainfall at Maidenhead is inferred.",
  "The rainfall rank describes this released series, not a measurement of the atmosphere in the painting.",
  "The Oxford daily release ends in January 2020, so it cannot supply a full 1991–2020 April normal.",
  "Rain-gauge exposure, observation hours and the precise 1844 gauge position have not been reconstructed here."
 ]
}